AFC underdog report: Divisional round

By Bruce Ewing | Last updated Jan 16, 2024 2:52 PM ET

Just four teams remain in the AFC playoffs. Here’s how the underdogs move beyond the divisional round.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)

First the good news: C.J. Stroud tied the NFL rookie record for most touchdown passes in a playoff game as the Texans easily defeated the Cleveland Browns 45-14. Now the bad news: This Saturday they’ll face a Baltimore defense that allowed a league-low 16.5 points per game in the regular season.

Normally that would be a death sentence for a visiting team starting a rookie quarterback, but Stroud is no ordinary rookie. His 4,108 yards in the regular season were third-most by a rookie in NFL history, and his 273.9 yards per game average was best among regular starters.

He finished the regular season with the league’s best touchdown-to-interception ratio (23-5) and tied the NFL record for passing touchdowns in a playoff game by a rookie quarterback (3). In other words, Stroud isn’t the same player he was in Week 1 when the Ravens beat the Texans 25-9 at M&T Bank Stadium.

Baltimore’s pass defense is tough, but not as tough as the Browns defense that Stroud already sent packing. If Houston’s rookie QB has another good game, the Texans just might shock the world and move on to the AFC Championship Game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

The last time these teams met, this happened:

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was apoplectic afterward and will likely play Sunday night’s game with a chip on his shoulder. That can’t be good for a Bills team looking to reach the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 2020.

With identical 11-6 records, it’s a bit surprising that the defending Super Bowl Champions aren’t favored. Buffalo usually has an advantage in cold weather but with the Chiefs' 26-7 win over the Dolphins in near record-low temperatures, the Bills won’t get any help from Mother Nature in this one.

They won’t get any help from a Chiefs defense that allowed a playoff-best 264 yards to Miami last weekend and the second-fewest yards in the regular season. Steve Spagnuolo’s unit tied three teams for the fourth-fewest interceptions (8) in the league, but Bills quarterback Josh Allen nearly led the league this year with 18 interceptions. If the Chiefs’ defense can take the ball from Allen, Mahomes should make them pay with lots of passes to rookie receiver Rashee Rice.

The former Mustang had 130 yards and a score against Miami and 127 yards to end the regular season. He may not be Tyreek Hill, but with the reigning MVP throwing him the ball, the Chiefs have an excellent chance of leaving Orchard Park with a win.

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