An optimist’s guide to the 2024 Jacksonville Jaguars

A late-season meltdown kept the Jacksonville Jaguars out of the playoffs last season, but the team tweaked a few things and appears to be set for another run at the postseason.

Here’s why the Jaguars can challenge the Texans for the division crown in 2024.

Trevor Lawrence playing for a big payday

Good quarterbacks are getting paid left and right, and heading into his fourth season, Lawrence is part of the next crop of passers destined for a huge raise. The going rate for the top QBs right now is about $50M per season, and with that kind of money at stake, one has to believe Lawrence is highly motivated to have a career year in 2024.

Three seasons into his career, Lawrence has thrown 58 touchdowns and 39 interceptions with two 4,000-yard seasons. Those numbers aren’t bad, but they also don’t scream “elite QB” either. 

Another season with barely over 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns likely won’t get the 24-year-old the kind of payday he’s looking for. Many have questioned if Lawrence will take that next step in his development and make the leap from the really good QB tier to the elite QB tier, and if ever there was a year to silence them, this is it.

Strong free-agent and draft classes

Sure, the Jags lost receiver Calvin Ridley to the Tennessee Titans, but aside from that they had a solid free-agency period. 

The team added defensive end Arik Armstead from the San Francisco 49ers, receiver Gabriel Davis from the Buffalo Bills, safety Darnell Savage from the Green Bay Packers, Pro Bowl center Mitch Morse, also from the Bills and cornerback Ronald Darby.

In the draft, the Jaguars added another top receiver in Brian Thomas Jr., they shored up defensive tackle with LSU’s Maason Smith and Jordan Jefferson and they added two depth pieces in the secondary with Florida State cornerback Jarrian Jones and Ole Miss CB Deantre Prince. Jacksonville bolstered quite a few positions of need this offseason.

A solid core of players

Losing five of its last six games and missing the playoffs after an 8-3 start is deflating, but had a few more games went Jacksonville’s way (four of its eight losses were in one-score games), a playoff run would have been highly likely. 

The good news is many of the players from last year’s team that started off red-hot (and were on the 2022 playoff team that won a postseason game for that matter) will be back next season.

The Jaguars have the quarterback in place. They have a Pro Bowl-caliber running back and tight end, plus a strong receiver group that features former 1,000-yard receiver Christian Kirk. They also kept the heart and soul of their defense, Josh Allen, plus have an ascending pass-rusher in Travon Walker and a solid group of linebackers. 

If Jacksonville can keep from beating itself, there’s no reason it shouldn’t be right back in the playoff hunt in 2024.