Atlanta Falcons ceiling and floor for 2023

The Falcons doubled down on their rush offense in the draft and are going all-in on Desmond Ridder at quarterback. Whether those decisions prove to be the right ones or not will help determine if Atlanta reaches its ceiling or hits the floor in 2023.

Ceiling: 11-6

The Falcons could win the NFC South thanks to playing the easiest schedule based on last year's records. 

In the first six weeks, Atlanta has home games against rookie QBs Bryce Young (Carolina) and C.J. Stroud (Houston) as well as unproven signal callers Jordan Love (Packers) and Sam Howell (Washington). The Jags, Lions and Vikings are the only teams the Falcons face in the first 10 weeks that had a winning record in 2022.

Atlanta's potent run-first offense could be in a good spot with the Falcons facing only one top-10 rush defense from 2022, in Week 8 at the Titans. Nine of their opponents ranked in the bottom half of the league in rush defense and 11 allowed over 2,000 yards. Atlanta ranked third in rushing last season (2,718 yards) with 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier leading the backfield. The Falcons selected Bijan Robinson eighth overall in April's NFL Draft, giving the offense even more upside.

Floor: 7-10 

In a scenario where the team flops in 2023, it's most likely due to an underwhelming season from QB Desmond Ridder. While Atlanta faces Young and Stroud early, both were much more highly touted than Ridder out of college. Are we even sure he's better than Love and Howell?

Let's do a blind test featuring some 2022 stats:

Player A: 57.9 completion percentage, 8.9 yards per attempt, 83.0 passer rating, 46.4 QBR

Player B: 63.5 completion percentage, 6.2 yards per attempt, 86.4 passer rating, 49.8 QBR

Player C: 66.7 completion percentage, 9.3 yards per attempt, 112.2 passer rating, 82.0 QBR 

Howell is A, Ridder is B and Love is C. Ridder had a much larger sample size with 75 more pass attempts than Howell and Love had combined last season yet he wasn't asked to do much with those throws. Defenses will be angling to take away Robinson and Ridder will need to make throws for Atlanta to win consistently. So far, we simply don't know if he can. If he can't, it'll be a long season for the long-suffering Falcons fanbase.