The Buccaneers will be one of the teams exiting this season with quarterback uncertainty. They have Baker Mayfield on a one-year, $4M deal, one that came about due in large part to the $35.1M dead-money hit from Tom Brady‘s expired contract. Mayfield has recovered from a 2022 regression, though he is still three months from free agency.
Tampa Bay is believed to be open to a second Mayfield contract (though, no talks are believed to have taken place), and it is not a lock the quarterback commits to testing free agency now that he has reestablished some momentum. Mayfield said he is interested in staying with the Bucs beyond this season, via Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio.
After ranking last in the NFL in 2022 QBR, Mayfield sits 18th. He rallied the Bucs on a go-ahead scoring drive to topple the Falcons in Week 14, moving Tampa Bay into first place in the again-underwhelming NFC South. The former No. 1 overall pick has thrown 20 touchdown passes compared to eight interceptions, forming a strong connection with Mike Evans, who joins him as a free agent-to-be.
It will be interesting to see if Mayfield’s showing will garner first-year OC Dave Canales any HC interest, but for now, the Bucs have a chance at their third straight division title — in a season that was loosely deemed a retooling year due to the void years-driven Brady bill that hit the 2023 cap sheet.
In addition to Mayfield, the Bucs have Evans and Antoine Winfield Jr. as looming UFAs. Playing at an All-Pro level, Winfield will be in position to command a deal in the Jessie Bates neighborhood should the Bucs let him reach the market. Although the Bucs were able to re-sign DBs Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean after letting each hit free agency, the team may well consider the franchise tag for the former second-round pick. Mayfield would not seem an especially strong tag candidate.
The Bucs’ draft position may also help determine their path with Mayfield. Should Tampa Bay not close out its bid for another division title, its pick could land near the top 10. That would put the team in range to potentially trade up in Round 1 or nab the best non-Caleb Williams/Drake Maye quarterback prospect. Tampa Bay defending its NFC South title and landing at No. 19 or below would alter its draft equation.
Mayfield, 28, stands to join Kirk Cousins as a top QB available in free agency. Gardner Minshew and Ryan Tannehill are set to accompany the NFC duo as starter-level arms unsigned beyond this season. Mayfield has done well to earn himself a better market, but there probably will not be many teams looking for QB1s next year — especially if the Bears decide to trade Justin Fields and select a quarterback with their Panthers-obtained pick. Moving parts exist here, but wherever Mayfield ends up in 2024, he should be attached to a higher salary.
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