Betting the NFL — where no lead is safe, and chaos will occur
Don't believe in coincidences? You might want to reconsider.
Last week five moneyline underdogs won outright — Chicago, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, New York Giants and Seattle — and with two games still remaining on Monday, five moneyline underdogs have already won in Week 2: New York Jets, Arizona, Jacksonville, Miami and Dallas.
The under was the big winner last week, and that was the same again in Week 2. And who says betting on teams down double digits entering the fourth quarter to come back and win is a bad idea? That might not be the case after Sunday's games.
Less is more? More money for you that is.
The under hit in 11 times last week, and with two more games remaining in Week 2, the under has already hit nine times. If you do the math, the under has hit in exactly 2/3 of the games this season (20 of 30). What does that tell us? Simple — scoring is down across the NFL.
Do you believe in miracles?
Both the Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals were 25/1 underdogs to come back and win on Sunday after trailing by three scores at the start of the fourth quarter. Not only did one of them comeback to win, both of them did. The Dolphins overcame a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit and the Cardinals overcame a 20-point fourth-quarter deficit with an overtime victory over the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. A live $100 bet at the start of the fourth quarter would have won $2,500.
But if you thought that was bonkers, listen to this. Following Nick Chubb's second fourth-quarter rushing touchdown that put Cleveland up 30-17 with 1:55 to go against the Jets, the Browns were 60/1 favorites on the moneyline. But Joe Flacco threw two touchdowns a minute apart to lead New York to a 31-30 win. If that doesn't sum up the Browns franchise, I don't know what does.
Lions favored for first time since 2020
The Detroit Lions were favored on Sunday against the Washington Commanders (-1.5) for the first time since Week 2 of the 2020 season, and they did not blow it. The Lions covered with ease in a 36-27 win, and are now 2-0 against the spread this season.
AFC South struggles
AFC South teams — Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Houston and Tennessee — failed to record a win in Week 1, and Week 2 didn't go all that much better for the division. Jacksonville did give the division its first win of the season with a 24-0 shutout over the Colts, and Tennessee still hasn't played its second game of the season, but in a combined seven games so far, the AFC South is just 1-6-1. It gets worse. As moneyline favorites this season, AFC South teams are still winless, 0-2-1 to be exact. Talk about bad.
Insanity exists not just in the real world, but in the NFL too.
Entering Sunday afternoon, teams had won 2,229 consecutive games when leading by at least 13 points with less than two minutes to go. However, that streak came to an end courtesy of the New York Jets! Yes, the New York Jets! Trailing 30-17 with 1:55 remaining, the Jets scored two touchdowns, including the game-winning touchdown with 22 seconds remaining to pull off the 31-30 comeback win over the Cleveland Browns.
Teams had also won 711 consecutive games when leading at least by 21 points going in to the fourth quarter. The Miami Dolphins trailed the Baltimore Ravens 35-14 through three quarters, but used a 28-point fourth quarter to pull off the 42-38 upset. Insane, we know.
Close but no cigar
One bettor came one yard short, actually less than a yard short, from turning a 5-leg anytime touchdown parlay into a $9,000 profit. The bettor hit on Rashod Bateman, DJ Moore, Pat Freiermuth and Christian Kirk to all score a touchdown on Sunday, but missed on Marquis "Hollywood" Brown. Brown would have completed the parlay, but late in the fourth quarter, Brown was tackled at the half yard line after hauling in a 24-yard pass on fourth and four late in the fourth quarter. Talk about a tough pill to swallow.
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