In the latest edition of ESPN’s NFL Power Rankings, the Bucs find themselves near the bottom of the league at No. 29. This represented a four-spot drop from their No. 25 position in the “Way-Too-Early” rankings from February.
Is that fair? Is Tampa Bay one of the four worst teams in the NFL right now? What drastically changed since the previous rankings , which came out after quarterback Tom Brady had retired? Was it a case where other teams behind them have done more to improve in the last month and a half? It’s hard to tell.
It feels harsh to place the Bucs, who still have a solid core in place, way below teams like the Jimmy Garoppolo-led Raiders (No. 18), the soon-to-be Aaron Rodgers-less Packers (No. 20) and the Commanders (No. 22). It’s also harsh to place them under the Titans (No. 26) and Bears (No. 27).
That’s not to say Tampa Bay should be placed in the top half of the rankings or anything, but perhaps this is more of an indictment on the way these rankings are laid out. What’s separating the No. 29 Bucs from the No. 24 Saints? It can’t be much.
That’s why ranking in tiers is a more accurate way of assessing the league’s landscape. It’s much more plausible to consider the Bucs in the bottom one or two tiers of the league right now (I’d have them in the tier second from the bottom, for what it’s worth) than it is to say they’re No. 29 out of 32 teams. But I digress — on to the actual evaluation of where this team is.
No one will confuse the 2023 Bucs with the 2022 version of the team. Losing Brady is hard to recover from, and the lack of a clear answer at the quarterback position is — rightfully, to an extent — giving analysts and fans alike some pause when it comes to evaluating Todd Bowles’ team.
Tampa Bay is doing what it can to put together a roster that can compete in a weak NFC South, though. This isn’t some “blow-it-all-up rebuild.” There are still some holes to fill — namely defensive line and safety — while the team also has to piece together a new-look offensive line.
But whoever the starting quarterback ends up being — whether it’s 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask or new signee Baker Mayfield — he will have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Russell Gage and an emerging weapon at tight end in Cade Otton to throw to. He’ll also have Rachaad White, who is looking to build off of a solid rookie season, taking on a larger role in the backfield.
Defensively, the Bucs still have Lavonte David and Devin White making up one of the better linebacker duos in the NFL. They also have an impressive starting cornerback duo in Carlton Davis III and the recently re-signed Jamel Dean. Vita Vea and Antoine Winfield Jr. are two major pieces of the core as well, and while the pass rush is a question mark due to Shaq Barrett’s age/Achilles and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka’s inconsistency, there’s potential there as well.
By the time some more signings are made and the draft is over, the Bucs should be more than capable of competing in their weak division. It’s hard to envision them being the 29th-best team out of 32 for long, as it’s frankly hard to envision right now. Do the Falcons (No. 28), Saints (No. 24) and Panthers (No. 21) have cores that make them superior to the Bucs? Hardly.
Bucs — Considering The Circumstances – Have Had A Solid Offseason So Far
The Bucs, given their salary cap situation and need to fill a giant Brady-sized gap in their roster, have done pretty well this offseason.
They got under the salary cap by making some tough decisions, parting ways with longtime left tackle Donovan Smith, playoff hero Leonard Fournette and fan/locker room favorite Cameron Brate. The team also traded right guard Shaq Mason to the Texans and recently released Ryan Succop, the kicker who came in before the 2020 season and provided some desperately needed stability at the position.
In terms of free agency moves, the two biggest actually involved the Bucs keeping their own homegrown players. In somewhat of a surprise, they were able to re-sign Dean (four years, $52 million) and later inked David, a legendary Buc, to a new deal (one-year, $7 million).
Anthony Nelson, Nick Leverett, Aaron Stinnie and Pat O’Connor are also all back. Mayfield (one year, up to $8.5 million) was the big addition, and he’ll come in and challenge Trask for the right to run new offensive coordinator Dave Canales’ system.
Defensive tackle Greg Gaines and running back Chase Edmonds were the other new signings, with both guys fitting the “value signing” mold that Jason Licht and Co. are after this offseason.
Especially in a weak NFC South, the Bucs have positioned themselves fairly well heading into next month’s draft. There’s reason to believe that by the time the roster is complete and the team takes the field this fall, Bowles’ squad can challenge for a third consecutive division title.
The best part about offseason rankings is that they’re just that: offseason rankings. It all plays out on the field from September-February. Maybe the Bucs will be the 29th-best team in the league this season debating the opposite will feel like it was a giant waste of time. Or maybe, just maybe, they can outperform projections and prove a lot of people wrong.
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