As of the publishing of this article, the Kansas City Chiefs are settling in as a 10.5-point favorite against the Denver Broncos in advance of their Thursday Night Football matchup. The Week 6 battle marks the first AFC West game for Andy Reid's team in the 2023 season, serving as the opening outing of a three-game intra-division slate. The two squads will square off once again on Oct. 29 sandwiched between a Los Angeles Chargers showdown for the Chiefs, so Kansas City and Denver will be getting quite familiar with each other very soon.
Reid and Sean Payton are widely regarded as two of the best NFL coaches of this century, and there's a notable level of mutual respect between the both of them. Reid praised Payton in his Tuesday media availability, even admitting that he and his staff occasionally pull ideas from concepts the Broncos run. Payton is attempting to help Denver end a 15-game losing streak against Kansas City, which is a lot of history working against the head coach in his first year with a new team.
Despite the Chiefs' prolonged dominance against their bitter rivals, Reid isn't overlooking Thursday's opponent.
"Yeah, so they're talented on, really, both sides of the ball," Reid said. "I think they're just kind of getting used to the whole new process they're going through. I think they've got talent and good coaching, and I think our guys see that. We know it from a coaching standpoint because we know the coaches, but I think the players can put on the tape and they see that there's a lot of skill there and it's a good scheme and all that stuff."
It's been a rough season for the Broncos, who lost a pair of one-score games to open the year before losing by 50 points to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3, narrowly defeating the Chicago Bears in comeback fashion in Week 4 and then losing to the New York Jets by double-digits on Sunday. Payton's group is 1-4 on the year through five weeks and is facing a serious uphill battle just to get back to .500, let alone think about the playoffs. Contrary to what many expected entering the year, however, the offense hasn't been the problem.
Entering Week 6, the Broncos' offense is scoring the 10th-most points per game in the entire league at 24.2. That's accompanied by a No. 6 ranking in points per play, as well as a 13th overall ranking in passing yards per game. Quarterback Russell Wilson is enjoying a resurgent season after a brutal 2022, posting a 106.1 passer rating and slotting in at eighth in the NFL in quarterback EPA per play. Chiefs safety Justin Reid is taking notice, tipping his cap to Wilson for the job he's done thus far.
"Russ has been cooking," Reid said. "Their offense has been doing well. They've been hurt by some turnovers — they have a couple of things that they need to tighten up on the defensive side of the ball — but offensively, Russ has been playing great. [He's] getting thrown under the bus because of their record, but we have a challenge in front of us. It's not to be taken lightly."
For every problem the Denver offense has attempted to solve, at least one problem has been created by Vance Joseph's defense. The Broncos currently rank dead last in scoring and yards allowed per game, also giving up 6.95 yards per play ("good" for 32nd in all of football as well). A unit that fielded the NFL's eighth-best group in opponent success rate in 2022 now sits 29th in 2023, dropping to a 32nd ranking in EPA per play to boot. There's no sugarcoating the struggles for the Broncos on defense, but Patrick Mahomes still sees a talented group on film.
"I think as far as their DBs are concerned, they have veteran safeties, they have young [and] really good corners," Mahomes said. "Especially (Patrick) Surtain. Obviously, he intercepted me last year but he's just a good, physical corner and can do a little bit of everything. One of the top corners in this league. And then their D-line, they have pass rushers kind of everywhere. Obviously Frank (Clark), I understand how explosive he is off the football but I think the (Nik) Bonitto kid's done a great job this year. It seems like he's really coming into his own and it seems like every year, the Broncos just have more and more pass rushers that just keep coming.
"We're going to have to make sure that we neutralize those as much as we possibly can. Those guys, that's going to be a tough challenge for us. And then the linebackers are two very smart guys. (Josey) Jewell had two interceptions on me last year, so it's a good defense. It's going to take us really executing at a high level if we want to go out there and continue to take steps in a positive direction with the offense."
On paper, this is a game that many are expecting to be a blowout in favor of the Chiefs. Despite some typical gamesmanship on behalf of the hosts for this week's contest, it seems highly unlikely that Kansas City doesn't do its due diligence in preparing for what Denver can throw at them. The talent is indeed there, and the offensive success in a new era of Broncos football is worth monitoring. Even if things go south on Thursday night, the trio of Reid, Reid and Mahomes is expecting a tough fight. Given the nature of divisional games, that's a wise approach.
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