COVID-19 fallout among factors working against Vikings' Dalvin Cook, talented RB group in negotiations
Coming off his first Pro Bowl season, Dalvin Cook’s holdout threat represents a key domino at a complex time for the running back position. A few factors now set up the coming months as an important chapter for a sizable sect of the game's starting backs.
Entering last summer, running backs looked to have firmer financial footing. This status upgrade came after the position’s gradual descent left it as one of the least valuable NFL jobs. Big-ticket extensions occurred just as the deep next wave of chain-movers looked poised to increase running backs’ standing leaguewide. The collective crusade on which the latter group has embarked, however, has spawned at a bad time.
Cook will not be the only running back to encounter issues securing a lucrative extension. In less than a year, running back value has plunged into an unstable place. This younger ball-carrier cadre eligible for extensions will not only pay for the disappointing returns Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell delivered on their contracts — each of which clearing the $13 million-per-year mark to transform a previously depressed market. But this legion of productive backs may see their careers change because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Less than two months after Christian McCaffrey's Panthers payday set the table for his 2017 draft classmates, it no longer looks realistic for a back to enter McCaffrey's new tax bracket: a running back-record four years and $64 million.
Ten members of the 2017 running back class are NFL starters. This excludes overqualified Browns backup Kareem Hunt, the 2017 rushing champion. Every '17 draftee became extension-eligible the day after the 2019 regular season’s conclusion. When Phillip Lindsay – eligible for a new Broncos deal a year early because of his 2018 undrafted status — and 2016 picks Derrick Henry (franchise-tagged by the Titans) and Kenyan Drake (transition-tagged by the Cardinals) are added to this equation, more than a third of the NFL’s backfield leaders are on expiring contracts.
Chris Carson (Seahawks), James Conner (Steelers), Cook, Leonard Fournette (Jaguars), Hunt, Aaron Jones (Packers), Alvin Kamara (Saints), Marlon Mack (Colts) and Joe Mixon (Bengals) are 2017 draftees in contract years. Every member of this group — along with Drake, Henry and Lindsay — has been a multiyear starter. This collection has combined for 14 of the NFL’s 34 1,000-yard rushing seasons over the past three years.
Instead of this contingent changing the running back marketplace, it may see a forthcoming run of low-ball offers. The 2020 collective bargaining agreement further punishes holdouts, increasing their daily fines, preventing teams from waiving those fines and affecting holdouts' free-agency statuses. If a player fails to report on time this year, he loses an accrued season toward free agency.
While Ezekiel Elliott's 2019 holdout ignored the accrued-season deadline and produced a then-running back-record Cowboys extension, most among this latest set of extension-seeking backs cannot realistically skip camp. These team-friendlier rules will put Cook to a decision. He will need the threat of looming free agency as leverage against the Vikings.
This is a relatively minor inconvenience compared to the other shoe that could soon drop. The coronavirus forcing a fan-less season remains in play. Even a season with limited attendance would radically alter teams’ finances. A 2021 salary cap reduction may be inevitable. Although precise projections on how far the cap would decrease are not available, early predictions being close would hijack teams' plans. Certain categories of players would feel the effects most.
Middle-class veterans at most positions will be vulnerable in a reduced-cap scenario, but most teams already are hesitant when it comes to paying running backs. If the cap drops for only the second time in its 27-year history, franchises will want no part of McCaffrey-neighborhood or even upper-class running back deals.
When McCaffrey inked his extension less than two months ago, a reality in which imminent, record-setting NFL TV deals created substantial early-2020s cap increases remained realistic. That rosy future appears on hold (at best). Even if the 2021 cap is not considerably reduced, the league would need to borrow from projected future earnings — thus nixing those significant cap spikes down the line.
The glut of extension-candidate running backs only features a few — Kamara, Henry and maybe Jones and Mixon — whose skill sets would be exceedingly difficult to replace via the draft. Cook may fall short of that distinction. Vikings offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak’s zone-blocking system has a history of coaxing quality work from low-end running back investments. A backfield committee featuring Alexander Mattison and Mike Boone on rookie contracts may be preferable to the injury-prone Cook on an eight-figure-per-year deal.
Teams’ hesitancy to offer fair value now would force backs to accept the lesser proposals or take their chances on a buyer’s market come March. A $10M-plus franchise tag would be a win for most of these backs next year, given what could be awaiting them in free agency. On a lower cap, most teams would gladly fill a running back need in the draft rather than pay up for someone with four or five years' worth of NFL touches. The Colts got ahead of this in April, drafting Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor in Round 2. That will almost certainly send Mack to the 2021 market. A few from the above list will probably join him, which would open the door for fascinating player movement at this position next year.
Running back value descending toward the position’s dark ages — when $8M-per-year deals topped the market — after a glimpse of optimism would be a tough blow for a job featuring immense injury risks and limited earning windows. While the 2017 draft class — and the select players in similar situations — illustrates tremendous depth, it also shows how easy drafting and deploying running backs can be.
Cook’s negotiations with the Vikings may now double as a new-era trial run. The outcome of these talks could signal a bleaker-than-expected future for much of the league's first-string running back workforce.
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