Cowboys are buying tickets to the most dangerous game of the NFL offseason

The Dallas Cowboys are reportedly unlikely to bring back Tyron Smith for the 2024 NFL season, a decision stemming from nothing other than financials.

Prior to the 2023 campaign, Tyron and the Cowboys agreed to a reworked deal that essentially acted as a pay cut but giving the left tackle a chance to win back his money by hitting certain percentages of playing time. 

Smith more than delivered: He played 13 games as one of the best offensive linemen in the entire league to the point of earning second-team All-Pro honors and finishing the season as the highest-graded pass blocking tackle in the league. 

Naturally, this gained Smith leverage in contract negotiations ahead of free agency. When the sides met in Indianapolis during the NFL Scouting Combine, in all likelihood the Cowboys were expecting to re-sign Smith to a similar deal.

Instead, they're now expected to allow the top tackle in free agency to test the market and likely, leave, ending an era of a future Hall of Famer in Dallas. 

Such a decision means the Cowboys are buying tickets to the most dangerous game of the NFL offseason: Waltzing into the NFL Draft with a non-negotiable team need to take care off.

The Cowboys have no choice at No. 24 overall but to draft offensive line

Having success in the NFL Draft is not easy no matter the circumstances. But when you limit your chances of hitting on your pick because you've got to reach for a need, things get drastically worse.

Think of the latest "great" picks by the Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb was drafted in 2020 not because the team badly needed a WR but because he fell to 17th and the value was too high. A year later, the team traded back a couple of picks before deciding Micah Parsons was too good to pass on at 12th despite the positional value questions (at the time, Parsons was mostly considered an off-ball linebacker). Even Tyler Smith was supposedly a Top 15 prospect on their board, and they seem to have hit on that one. 

Taking the best player available is key in the Draft if you're too get the picks right. But if you enter the event at the end of April with no answers as to who will start in your offensive line while picking 24th, you're putting yourself behind the eight ball and setting yourself up to failure. 

Tyler Smith is a wild card in this conversation, as he could play guard or tackle for Dallas in the future, giving them more flexibility to pick the best O-lineman, whether it's a tackle or a guard. 

But considering Mike McCarthy's firm decision to stop moving around the young player in 2023 by leaving him at LG during Tyron's missed games, it's fair to assume the Cowboys prefer to keep him inside. 

Although the Cowboys could make some moves in free agency, any addition at left tackle would be a significant downgrade. Per A to Z Sports' Top 105 contract projections, Jonah Williams (played RT last year) and Trent Brown (was a healthy scratch in Week 17) round out the top three tackles in this year's market. 

If Tyler Smith is moved to left tackle, not only are you moving one of your most dominant players up front to a different position (Smith was elite against top competition in 202e at LG) but you're still leaving a big void at left guard, also essentially forcing yourself to draft an OL in the Draft. 

All for not going "all-in" on a veteran who has proven to be one of the best tackles in the game over and over again and who has remained healthier after changes to his practice schedule.

Can the Cowboys find the right player at 24th overall to fill the void? Sure, maybe. But having question marks upfront in a year you're trying to win it all when you didn't have to go down this route is bad team building.