Dallas Cowboys ceiling and floor for 2023
After winning 12 games for the second straight season, Cowboys fans have reason to be excited for 2023. After years of playoff disappointment, however, they’ve learned to be cautiously optimistic.
Dallas may have had the best offseason of any team. The additions of WR Brandin Cooks and CB Stephon Gilmore should help, but the third-toughest schedule, per NFL Research, certainly won’t. Here's what we see as the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Cowboys in 2023.
Ceiling: 12-5
Twelve wins were good enough to win the NFC East two years ago, and it should be good enough to take the crown from Philadelphia in 2023. The Cowboys schedule is tough (complete analysis here), but the Eagles’ is tougher. If Dallas can improve its division record by a game or two, another 12-win season is entirely possible.
The Cowboys swept the Giants last season but split matchups against the Commanders and Eagles. Beating Philadelphia twice could be tough. Inexperienced Washington quarterback Sam Howell beat the Cowboys in his only start last season, in a meaningless Week 18 game, and as long as he's QB, Dallas should expect to sweep the Commanders.
Washington is just one of seven non-playoff opponents Dallas will face this season. Games against the Cardinals and Panthers are manageable, but the Rams, Jets and Lions should be better than they were last season. The Cowboys were 9-3 when favored last season. If that trend continues, Dallas should easily surpass its over/under number of 9.5 wins.
Floor: 7-10
Before 12-5 seasons became a tradition, Dallas went 6-10 in 2020. A losing 2023 season may seem far-fetched, but with a few bad breaks, seven wins isn’t unthinkable.
For starters, four of the Cowboys first six games are on the road. They open the season in New York and travel to Arizona, San Francisco and Los Angeles to face the Chargers. Things even out after their Week 7 bye, but back-to-back road games against Buffalo and Miami in December won’t be easy.
Opposing defenses will be tough as well. In terms of yards allowed per game, the Cowboys will play eight games against teams with top-10 defenses in 2022. If Dak Prescott continues to struggle with interceptions — he tied for the league lead with 15 last season — teams such as the 49ers, Eagles and Jets could make him pay and knock Dallas out of playoff contention.
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