Executive picks between Buccaneers, Falcons after Kirk Cousins deal

One NFL executive has warned against people naming the Atlanta Falcons and not the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the uncrowned NFC South champions for the 2024 NFL season. Atlanta had a big offseason. The team hired former Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris as its next head coach and signed quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency. 

"I’d still go with Tampa right now," that executive told Mike Sando of The Athletic for a piece published Wednesday. "I know the optics look good for Atlanta, but you have a new head coach, there will be a learning curve that comes along with that. The quarterback’s ability to get in the flow coming off an Achilles injury, we’ll see how that goes. It’s a calculated risk, but a risk nonetheless." 

The Falcons mostly featured 2022 third-round draft pick Desmond Ridder and journeyman Taylor Heinicke at quarterback en route to finishing this past season at 7-10. Meanwhile, signal-caller Baker Mayfield signed with Tampa Bay in March 2023 and then guided the Buccaneers to their third straight division title and to a home playoff victory. 

As for Cousins, much has been made about the fact that he suffered a season-ending torn Achilles on Oct. 29 ahead of turning 36 years old in August. It's still too early to know, for sure, what he will and won't be coming off that injury, but one executive indicated that Cousins' play with the Minnesota Vikings before his setback suggests Atlanta upgraded at the sport's most important position. 

"Internally, when you are Minnesota and have a guy that is winning you games but not winning you Super Bowls, you want to get better," that executive told Sando. "Externally, when you have been with a team like Atlanta that has not tasted the playoffs in so long, you go, 'F---, if I had a guy like that!' You think any coach in Atlanta is sitting there saying, 'This guy is not going to help us?' They could not pass the ball last year."

ESPN stats show that Cousins ended the 2023 regular season ranked seventh in the NFL among qualified players with a 63.2 adjusted QBR. He tossed 18 touchdown passes and five interceptions in eight games. To compare, Ridder was 26th with a 40.1 adjusted QBR and tallied 12 touchdown passes with 12 picks over 15 contests. 

Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles is responsible for a 17-17 regular-season record in that role but isn't starting anew as is Morris. Sportsbooks list the Falcons as the betting favorites to claim the division crown for the upcoming season even after the Buccaneers proved those who doubted the club last offseason wrong by the end of Week 18 this past January.