As two-point favorites on Sunday, the Atlanta Falcons could very well beat the New York Jets. However, fans can rest assured it won’t be coming in a shootout.
With a total projection of 33.5 points, this one features two not-so-great quarterbacks and two legitimately good defenses. New York has ridden its defense to each of its four wins on the season, and Atlanta’s defense complements an offense built around ball control.
The Jets have limited the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert to some of their worst games of the season. Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder has his work cut out for them, but New York is a winnable game in a crucial stretch of the schedule. Atlanta is 5-6 and in first place in a hotly contested NFC South. The offense needs to do enough to win.
Offensive coordinator Dave Ragone spoke about the challenges that Jets head coach Robert Saleh has crafted for the Falcons.
“What they do defensively when you just put the film on … quick, sound, fast, violent – it’s good,” Ragone said. “What they go out and try to accomplish each game is to cause issues. And they try to do it in a way that when you put on the film, it’s consistent. That’s what you appreciate so much about what they do defensively at every single snap. There’s not a play off.”
New York’s high-effort unit is fairly surprising given the league-worst offense that it has to deal with. The league has seen otherwise talented defenses collapse under the weight of an underperforming offense that continuously makes life difficult with wasted performances and poor field position. Yet, the Jets have persevered (save for last week against the Miami Dolphins).
Saleh’s unit boasts perhaps the best cornerback trio in football with superstar Sauce Gardner, veteran D.J. Reed, and slot corner Michael Carter. Only five teams have allowed fewer passing yards per game, and the defense ranks fourth in success rate, too.
Yet, this defense is not one-dimensional. One of the league’s best (and deepest) defensive lines makes the trenches a war zone and a messy environment for the Falcons’ strong run game to thrive. They’ll look to force Ridder into pure drop-back situations where an impressive pass rush can’t incite turnover-worthy plays.
“They each provide a different issue in terms of how they rush the passer,” Ragone said. “But ultimately, they all get to the same spot, which is they try to get to the quarterback. Their pressure numbers in a four-man rush is as good as anybody in the National Football League. And they do a good job when they bring others, but they don’t have to.”
The emergence of edge rusher Bryce Huff only added to the pass rush’s potency. First-round pick Will McDonald has played some good football in recent weeks, and former first-rounder Jermaine Johnson has five sacks this season. Pro Football Focus has the Jets as the seventh-ranked pass rush in football.
Altogether, Sunday shapes up as a close game with explosive plays winning the day. Can Atlanta create enough against a stingy defense? Will an ill-timed pick-six rue the day?
Week 13’s festivities kick off in MetLife Stadium at 1 p.m. (ET) on FOX.
More must-reads: