Falcons set to have the easiest 2024 schedule according to Vegas win totals

The Falcons’ 2023 schedule was by far the easiest in terms of their opponents’ win percentage, but we know that’s not an accurate way of predicting how difficult a schedule will be because of year-to-year roster turnover.

A better method is using Vegas’ 2024 win totals. The house always wins for a reason; oddsmakers are good at what they do.

More often than not, teams’ win totals are very close to actual outcomes and are an excellent benchmark for projecting the strength of schedules, which resident football nerd Warren Sharp has so graciously done for all of us, and the Falcons still have the easiest schedule.

The NFC South is the worst division in football. The Buccaneers’ win total is set at 8.5, the Saints at 7.5, and the Panthers at 4.5, with the Falcons at 9.5 wins.

For those of you who doubt the math, from Sharp:

• Of the 15 teams predicted to have the easiest 2023 schedules, 11 finished with winning records (Saints, Colts, Texans, Lions, Jaguars, Steelers, Packers, Buccaneers, 49ers, Browns, and Bengals)
• Of the 15 teams predicted to have the hardest 2023 schedules, only 5 finished with a winning record (Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Vikings)
• Of the 7 teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules, all 7 had winning records (49ers, Bengals, Lions, Jaguars, Saints, Browns, and Steelers)
• Of the 7 teams forecast to finish at or below .500 and predicted to have harder than average schedules, all 7 had losing records and 6 went under their win total (Vikings, Broncos, Giants, Patriots, Commanders, and Cardinals)

The Falcons did have one of the easiest schedules last year and missed the playoffs, so it’s clearly not an exact science, but getting to the postseason via the division has always been the surest path, and the Falcons have an excellent chance to do that in the NFC South.