Five NFL players primed for breakout seasons in 2023
Seemingly every year there are Geno Smith- or Jonathan Taylor-type players who come out of nowhere to put up head-turning numbers and establish themselves as legitimate Pro Bow-caliber players.
Here are five players to watch in 2023 who could have breakout seasons:
Khalil Herbert, RB, Chicago Bears
Herbert rushed for 731 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 5.7 yards per carry last year, and he had just 70 fewer yards and one fewer touchdown than 2022 starter David Montgomery despite having 72 fewer carries.
The 25-year-old tailback forced 47 missed tackles in two seasons, per Pro Football Focus, and his elusiveness and ability to change direction should pay off in spades if he gets the lion’s share of carries ahead of D’Onta Foreman, Travis Homer and Roschon Johnson. Herbert reached double-digit carries just six times last year, but if he’s a true 20-carry-per-game back next year, he should have no problem topping 1,000 yards, and he could even finish in the top 10 in rushing.
Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings
With Dalvin Cook out of the picture, there’s seemingly nothing holding Mattison back except himself. He’s never had more than 134 carries in any of his four seasons, but head coach Kevin O’Connell recently expressed confidence in Mattison to handle starting duties, stating the 25-year-old has shown glimpses of being a “three-down back.”
Mattison ran for 430 yards or more in each of his first three seasons while averaging 4.2 yards per carry. If Minnesota gives him the same workload it gave Cook as the lead back, then there may not be much of a drop-off in the run game, if any at all.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Although he finished with just 52 receptions for 801 yards and four touchdowns, Pickens showed flashes during his rookie season of Odell Beckham Jr.-like potential. He averaged 15.4 yards per reception and he established himself as a reliable, chain-moving option in the pass game.
With QB Kenny Pickett expected to also be better in Year 2, they could become one of the more dangerous QB-WR connections in the NFL. With Dionte Johnson commanding a lot of attention on the other side of the line, an 80-reception, 1,000-yard season is very doable for Pickens in 2023.
Chig Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans
Okonkwo looked like the Titans’ best pass-catcher on the field at times last year. He was second on the team with seven receptions of 20 or more yards last season, and he showed game-breaking athleticism and playmaking ability. The 23-year-old TE had 32 receptions for 450 yards and three touchdowns while playing second fiddle to Austin Hooper.
But now that he’s the unquestioned No. 1 tight end, don’t be surprised if Okonkwo has Delanie Walker-type production — especially if Tennessee’s suspect offensive line struggles to protect Ryan Tannehill and the 34-year-old QB is forced to get the ball out of his hands quickly and throw a lot of checkdowns. Okonkwo should be in the 60-reception, 700-yard neighborhood in 2023.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Atlanta Falcons
After two underwhelming seasons in New England, a trade to Atlanta to be reunited with former offensive coordinator Arthur Smith might be just what the 27-year-old tight end needed. Although he parlayed a solid 41-reception, 448-yard, eight-touchdown season with the Titans in 2020 into four-year, $50 million deal with the Patriots, Smith has never really had a true eye-opening year, at least statistically.
With Drake London, Mack Hollins and Kyle Pitts, Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder has plenty of options to throw to. But if Smith is used similar to how he was in Tennessee — a red-zone target and checkdown option across the middle of the field — then it wouldn’t be surprising to see Smith flirt with 50-60 receptions and 10 touchdowns.
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