We've been doing a Green Bay Packers mailbag every. But this question from Joe is so intriguing that this week we will explore this topic further.
What happened
The Packers didn't offer what Davante Adams wanted in 2021, entering the last year of his deal. So he played out his contract, and Green Bay still had the option to apply the franchise tag while negotiating a new deal.
Reportedly, the Packers made a strong offer to Adams in 2022, but the wide receiver requested a trade to the Las Vegas Raiders for several reasons — so it ended up being a tag-and-trade scenario. Money was one of them initially, but the Packers ended up offering more money than Adams signed for with his new team. Proximity to his family in California and the desire to play with his college friend Derek Carr were the main reasons.
That didn't seem like a great choice, though. Since the trade, Jordan Love has established himself as an above average starter at least. Meanwhile, the Raiders have released Derek Carr. The team has started Carr, Jarrett Stidham, Jimmy Garoppolo, Aidan O'Connell, and Brian Hoyer over the last two seasons.
Packers' perspective
If Adams could have that decision back, he might — at least from a professional perspective. But would the Packers want that move back? The team could certainly use Adams' elite performance during Aaron Rodgers' last year as a starter in 2022, but it's tough to think that the receiver by himself would be enough to transform a non-playoff team into a real Super Bowl contender.
The Packers traded Adams for first- and second-round picks, which general manager Brian Gutekunst utilized to select linebacker Quay Walker and to trade up in the second round to draft wide receiver Christian Watson. It's easy to say that the Packers lost the trade, because Adams is obviously much more valuable than Walker and Watson combined.
But the analysis must go beyond that.
Davante signed a five-year, $140 million contract. Even with a team-friendly structure, it's at least a three-year, $67.75 million deal ($22.58 million yearly average). Beyond the draft picks, Green Bay would have been forced to part ways with some players that they kept.
Independent cap analyst Ken Ingalls had a good breakdown of the free agents the Packers signed in 2022 with a total cap hit similar to what Adams alone had for the Raiders.
It's hard to be definitive about this topic. Maybe Davante Adams by himself would be more valuable than Quay Walker, Christian Watson, De'Vondre Campbell, Rasul Douglas, Robert Tonyan, Sammy Watkins, Jarran Reed, Pat O'Donnell, Keisean Nixon, and Allen Lazard.
And that doesn't count that the Packers kept running back Aaron Jones. They could have been forced to release him at some point to keep the team under the cap.
Maybe with Adams, the 2023 draft would also have been different. They might not take Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks, and they would have used those picks to get players from positions of need — needs created by the decision to keep Adams, like off-ball linebacker and cornerback.
The Kansas City Chiefs are also a proof of concept. They decided to move on from Tyreek Hill and used the picks and extra cap space to build a strong defense, which supported the downgrade on offense to two Super Bowl titles.
Obviously, the Packers haven't been able to extract so much value from their defense, but they were also more successful in building a strong offense around their quarterback with a good offensive line and promising receiving weapons.
The picks and the free cap space are important for the long term, and Brian Gutekunst is probably comfortable with the decision he made in 2022.
More must-reads: