It has been more than a decade since the Miami Dolphins finished in the top 10 in the NFL in total defense, but that drought is expected to end in 2023.
In fact, longtime NFL defensive coordinator and former Colts head coach Chuck Pagano thinks the Dolphins will have not a top 10 but a top 5 defense next season.
In a story for the 33rd Team website, Pagano put the Dolphins at number 5 on his list of the top defenses after the 2023 NFL draft.
Pagano emphasized the addition of Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator along with the acquisition of Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey as reasons to expect a huge leap for a Dolphins defense that was 18th in the NFL in total yards allowed last season.
THE DOLPHINS RANKINGS THROUGH THE YEARS
For those keeping score at home, the Dolphins haven't finished in the top 10 in total defense since 2010 when they were sixth; they haven't been in the top 5 since 2006 when they were fourth.
The Dolphins offense ended a long Top 10 drought last season in Mike McDaniel's first year as head coach, finishing sixth in the league in yards per game. It was the first time since 1995 that Miami was in the top 10.
Safety Jevon Holland said in a Zoom media session Tuesday he's not worried about outside expectations for the defense.
"It is what it is, man," he said. "It is what it is. I mean, it's not gonna change what we do on the field. You all's (outside) expectations is you all's expectations. You're not in the building. So it's got nothing to do with us. We've just got to keep doing what we're doing and play.
"I think this defense is very talented and we all have a like-minded expectation for us to be successful — as every high-level competitor should be."
DO THE DOLPHINS NEED TO HAVE A HIGH-RANKING DEFENSE?
The additions of Fangio and Ramsey are among the reasons overall expectations are high for the Dolphins in 2023, but this is where we pose the question of just how important it is for Miami's defense to have a high ranking for the team to achieve success — such as a return to the playoffs.
History says it's not the defensive performance that's going to most influence the team's success, but rather the offense's.
Around the NFL, a quick look at the 14 playoff teams in 2022 shows that 10 of them had a higher ranking on offense than defense, including three teams with huge disparities (Minnesota 7th in offense, 31st in defense; L.A. Chargers 9th in offense, 29th in defense; Jacksonville 10th in offense, 24th in defense).
And of those four teams that ranked higher on defense than offense, the Philadelphia Eagles were third in total offense (second in defense) and the San Francisco 49ers were fifth in total offense (first in defense).
Additionally, 10 of the top 11 teams in total offense made the playoffs, the only exception behind the fourth-ranked Detroit Lions. Conversely, five of the top 10 teams in total defense failed to make the playoffs (Washington, New York Jets, New Orleans, Denver and New England).
And then we can look at the Dolphins' own history.
Of the last five times Miami finished in the top 10 in total offense, four of those seasons produced a playoff berth.
The last five times Miami has finished in the top 10 in total defense, the Dolphins have not made the playoffs once (2010, 2006, 2004, 2003, 2002).
Of course, the most ideal scenario is for the Dolphins to finish in the top 10 in offense AND defense.'
That's happened four times in franchise history — 1971, 1972, 1973, 1992.
The Dolphins went to the Super Bowl in 1971, 1972 and 1973 (winning the last two) and went to the AFC Championship Game in 1992.
So the recipe is simple for the Dolphins: The offense repeats as a top 10 unit and the defense lives up to expectations and matches that top 10 finish.
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