Indianapolis Colts ceiling and floor for 2023

After finishing with a 4-12-1 record and the second-worst scoring offense in the NFL last season, the Indianapolis Colts needed to clean house. Having replaced their head coach, offensive coordinator and starting quarterback from 2022, here's our best guess at the best and worst-case scenarios for the Colts in 2023: 

Ceiling: 9-8 

If rookie QB Anthony Richardson starts for most or all of the season, and with a healthy Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, the offense should be improved enough to keep the team competitive in a few more games.

Let’s assume the Colts can muster four wins within the division by sweeping the Texans, who are also breaking in a rookie QB, and splitting with the Titans and Jaguars, who they beat in Week 6 last season. They have winnable games against the Saints in Week 8, Panthers in Week 9, Patriots in Week 10, Buccaneers in Week 12, Falcons in Week 16 and Raiders in Week 17. (Complete schedule analysis here). 

And if the Colts can pull off an upset along the way over the Ravens, Bengals or Steelers as they did against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs in Week 3 last season, finding five more wins shouldn’t be too difficult. 

Floor: 3-14

Many of those winnable games mentioned above could just as easily be losable. It’s tough to fathom the Colts not winning at least two out of six games in the AFC South, especially with Houston and Tennessee’s rosters both in flux.

Outside of the division, the easiest games on Indy’s schedule are likely the Panthers, who are also willing to let their rookie QB take his lumps, or the Bucs, who will either be starting Baker Mayfield, who’s on his fourth team in six years, or Kyle Trask, who has all of nine NFL pass attempts.

First-year Indianapolis head coach Shane Steichen is a great offensive mind, and the Colts offense should improve under his watch. But he’s going from QB Jalen Hurts and WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to Richardson and WRs Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. So expectations should be tempered.