With the Green Bay Packers’ season going nowhere fast, they dealt standout cornerback Rasul Douglas to the Buffalo Bills at the NFL trade deadline. The official deal: Douglas and a fifth-round pick to Buffalo in exchange for a third-round pick.
The Packers weren’t looking to trade Douglas, their top back-end playmaker, but the Bills called “out of the blue” and “the offer was kind of too good to pass up,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said at the time.
“We thought it was in the best interests of the Packers,” he explained. “Obviously in the short term, you lose a good player. That’s tough. But, at the same time, looking kind of long term, it’s going to be in our best interests.
“Any time you get a third-round pick that’s going to be within the top-100, probably going to be in the top-50 players you have on your board, that’s something I think that was too good for us to pass up. We wish him well. He served us well while he was here, and we’re excited about the opportunities it presents for some other guys.”
What Gutekunst left out in that comment was the fact the Packers also were parting with a fifth-round pick.
By one trade-value chart, the classic Jimmy Johnson model, the third-round pick Green Bay gained from Buffalo, No. 91 overall, is worth 136 points. The fifth-round pick the Packers sent back to Buffalo, No. 159 overall, is worth 27.8 points. Using those point values, the Packers essentially traded Douglas for the equivalent of the 98th overall pick – a third-round compensatory selection.
From that perspective, the fifth-round pick is rather negligible, though Green Bay had the 159th pick in the 2023 draft, as well, and used it on receiver Dontayvion Wicks. His rookie-year impact definitely was not negligible.
Beyond that, here’s why the math works in Green Bay’s favor – theoretically speaking, anyway.
Because of the infusion of NIL money into college sports, fewer underclassmen entered the 2024 NFL Draft than normal. In fact, here are the underclassmen numbers from the last 10 drafts:
2024: 58
2023: 82
2022: 100
2021: 128
2020: 111
2019: 103
2018: 106
2017: 95
2016: 96
2015: 74
2014: 98
Compared to two years ago, there are 32 fewer underclassmen in this year’s draft. That’s an entire round of players who won’t be on team draft boards. It’s almost two rounds’ worth of players compared to three years ago. Thus, the value of those late-round picks has been diminished.
With the trades of Aaron Rodgers to the Jets for an additional second-round pick and Douglas to the Bills for an additional third-round pick, the Packers are scheduled to have five picks in the first three rounds.
Those picks:
First round, No. 25
Second round, No. 41 (Rodgers trade)
Second round, No. 58
Third round, No. 88
Third round, No. 91 (Douglas trade)
Along with their own picks in the fourth, sixth and seventh rounds and the promise of free-agent compensatory picks (perhaps in the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds), Gutekunst expects to have 11 picks at his disposal.
“There’s never enough for me, as you guys know,” he said. “We’ll probably have a little more volume at the top than we’ve had in years past. So, yeah, it gives us flexibility. It allows us, whether it’s just staying and picking, trading, moving around, maybe trading those picks for other players outside, veteran players, who knows. It just gives us a little more flexibility. I think that along with just being in a little better cap situation and have a little more flexibility there gives us an ability to help the football team more. It would be nice to have five in the top three every year.”
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