In a recent article for The Washington Post, NFL insider and analyst Jason La Canfora provided his projection for how the first-round quarterbacks may play out in 2024.
After the seemingly obvious prediction of USC quarterback Caleb Williams to Chicago, La Canfora declared a somewhat more surprising projection: national championship-winning Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy going second overall to the Commanders.
The first reasoning that La Canfora points to is the betting markets. Though betting odds are fickle and often change at the slightest whims, they can quite often predict the likeliest outcome, and right now, McCarthy’s odds of getting picked right after Williams are skyrocketing. Secondarily, La Canfora points to an evaluator who compared McCarthy to “another (Brock) Purdy.”
New Commanders general manager Adam Peters comes from the 49ers front office that selected Purdy as the last pick of the draft two years ago. If McCarthy is demonstrating the attributes that drew Peters and company to Purdy, that also helps McCarthy’s chances of heading to Washington.
Unfortunately, that same brain trust in San Francisco was responsible for the trade to move up for Trey Lance, so Peters’ history with picking quarterbacks may be hit or miss.
La Canfora also claims that the Giants are highest on McCarthy over the other remaining quarterbacks after Williams is drafted, but if he goes to the Commanders, as La Canfora predicts, New York will have to settle for another option: LSU Heisman-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels.
La Canfora doesn’t take it as fact that Daniels is headed to New York, though. He reports that the Raiders, who currently hold the 13th overall pick of the first round, “badly want to move up” to land Daniels. This rumor makes a ton of sense when you consider that Las Vegas’ head coach Antonio Pierce got an up-close look at Daniels when the two were together at Arizona State for several years.
They aren’t very well positioned to make the move, but according to two general managers in the league, the Raiders are making the effort, nonetheless.
Aside from those two bigger predictions, La Canfora’s projection is fairly in-line with what we’ve been seeing. He predicts that the first four picks will be quarterbacks (Williams to Chicago, McCarthy to Washington, Daniels to New York, and North Carolina passer Drake Maye to Minnesota [via trade]), he sees the Raiders settling for Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. if they can’t trade up, and he sees Oregon quarterback Bo Nix becoming the fifth first-round quarterback of the draft thanks to the Ravens trading down so that the Broncos can select him 30th overall.
This all continues a wild runup to what is certainly shaping up to be an unpredictable 2024 NFL Draft. A top-heavy quarterback draft class has provided pundits and analysts alike with myriad predictions for how everything will play out. With a little over three weeks until the all-important date, the sequence of events following the No. 1 overall pick is unclear as ever.
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