NFC South Week 15 predictions: Falcons, Saints get back to .500
The Falcons, Saints and Buccaneers are in a three-way tie for first entering Week 15, but that won't last.
Here are our predictions for this weekend in the NFC South.
Atlanta Falcons (6-7) at Carolina Panthers (1-12): Per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, three starting offensive linemen sat out of practice on Wednesday, including left tackle Jake Matthews (ankle), right tackle Kaleb McGary (knee) and right guard Chris Lindstrom (ankle). On Monday, head coach Arthur Smith said Lindstrom and Matthews have a chance to play, but even so, they probably won't be at 100 percent.
Those injuries might make Sunday's game closer than Atlanta would like, but its defense should limit a Carolina offense that has regressed since Frank Reich's firing. In 10 games with Reich as his head coach, rookie quarterback Bryce Young completed 61.7 percent of his attempts for an average of 187.7 yards per game. In his two starts after Reich was fired, Young has completed 41.8 percent of his passes for an average of 157.5 yards per game.
PREDICTION: Falcons 19-10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at Green Bay Packers (6-7): Former NFC Central division foes meet in a game that could majorly impact the NFC playoff picture. Per the New York Times, the Packers have a 50 percent chance of reaching the playoffs entering Week 15, but that number increases to 65 percent with a win. However, a loss drops the likelihood Green Bay makes the postseason to 28 percent. A similar scenario plays out for the Bucs, which have a 76 percent chance of making the playoffs with a win but only a 38 percent chance with a loss.
The game could come down to which team's weakness is able to be exploited. The Bucs are 31st in rushing yards per attempt (3.5 yards) while the Packers are 28th in yards per attempt allowed (4.6 yards). The Packers have held weak rushing offenses, including the Raiders, Rams, Saints and Vikings, under 100 yards, so we'll take Green Bay to force the Bucs to be one-dimensional, leading to Tampa's downfall.
PREDICTION: Packers 21-20
New York Giants (5-8) at New Orleans Saints (6-7): The Giants ride the Tommy DeVito wave into New Orleans with a chance to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Unfortunately for New York, the Saints typically feast on rookie quarterbacks. In four games against the New Orleans defense this season, rookie quarterbacks are 66-of-126 (52.4 percent) for 709 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions. DeVito's mobility might be an issue for New Orleans with the Saints ranking 31st in yards per carry allowed to quarterbacks. Against the Packers, DeVito had 10 carries for 71 yards.
Offensively, New Orleans should be able to move the ball against a team that is 26th in total defense (361.4 yards per game), including 29th against the run (135.1 yards per game). The Saints must stay ahead of schedule; New York is fourth in third-down defense (35.1 percent) but 24th in the red zone (59.6 percent).
PREDICTION: Saints 28-17
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