NFC underdog report: Conference championships
Will the 49ers' third-straight trip to the NFC Championship Game be the charm on Sunday? Not if the Lions embrace their underdog status and air it out.
Odds via DraftKings as of Jan. 22.
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
How do you beat a well-coached, experienced playoff team with nine Pro Bowlers on the roster? With a strong passing game and a little bit of house money. After winning two playoff games for the first time since 1957, the Lions can afford to play free and loose when they meet the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. No one expects them to win, which is just how head coach Dan Campbell likes it.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff took the Rams to Super Bowl LIII in 2018, and with a talented group of pass-catchers, he has an excellent chance of doing it again. As good as the 49ers defense is, they’ve been more vulnerable to the pass than the run. San Francisco gave up the 19th-most passing yards per game (214.2) in the regular season and the third-fewest yards per game (89.7) on the ground.
With the NFL’s third-leading receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit’s passing game ranked second in the regular season. St. Brown has 187 yards and a score in two playoff games, but he’s had some welcome competition from Josh Reynolds, Goff’s teammate with the Rams.
Reynolds has 107 yards and a touchdown in two playoff games, which is only slightly better than rookie tight end, Sam LaPorta. In the wild-card round, LaPorta had three catches, but one for a score. Against the Buccaneers, he caught nine passes for 65 yards.
Of course, Detroit shouldn’t abandon the run altogether. The 49ers defense may be stingy, but running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have combined for 189 yards and three scores in two playoff games. Gibbs averaged 8.2 yards per carry against Tampa and his postseason average of 5.8 yards per carry is the same as 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey.
One way or another, Detroit’s offense needs to stay on the field against the Niners and keep players like McCaffrey on the sideline. If they do, the Lions can make their first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history.
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