The Falcons are currently the betting favorites to sign Kirk Cousins in free agency.
It seems the veteran will either stay in Minnesota or move south for Atlanta. Each side has appealing things to offer Cousins.
For the Vikings, his family is already rooted there, where they’ve been since 2018. He’s familiar with Kevin O’Connell, who is highly regarded around the league, and throws to the best receiver in the game in Justin Jefferson to go along with Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson.
For the Falcons, his wife’s family lives in the metro Atlanta area. Zac Robinson is supposedly a prodigy of an offensive coordinator, and there’s no shortage of weapons — Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson. Moreover, the NFC North is much more competitive than the NFC South.
All in all, the Falcons are, at best, in a similar situation as the Vikings in their appeal to the veteran signal caller. However, there’s another aspect of his free agency, and it may be the most important one — $$$. Not only is the sheer number of dollars important, but the contract length and guarantees are as well.
The Falcons are desperate for a quarterback and are expected to be aggressive in their search. Arthur Blank is also not the kind of owner that is afraid to spend.
On the flip side of things, the Vikings may be more hesitant. That could be the most impactful factor in all of this. So, what would a contract look like? Former NFL agent Joel Corry of CBS Sports weighed in on a potential price point.
Contract package: $125 million/three years ($41,666,667 per year, worth up to $131 million with incentives)
Overall guarantees: $85 million
Fully guaranteed at signing: $85 million
Here’s Corry’s explanation:
Adjusting Cousins’ soon-to-be-expiring one-year contract extension worth $35 million he signed with the Minnesota Vikings in 2022 for salary cap inflation would put him just below $43 million per year. Asking for slightly under this mark accounts for the season-ending torn right Achilles injury Cousins suffered in a Week 8 contest against the Green Bay Packers when he was arguably playing the best football of his 12-year NFL career.
I actually think the Falcons could sign him for even less than $125 million if the language is right. If Kirk Cousins’ chief concern is security, Atlanta could potentially convince him to take less total money for more guarantees.
So, instead of $125 million total over three years with $85 million guaranteed, maybe $120 million over three years with $90 million guaranteed could still get the deal done.
I’ll take it a step further and say that the Falcons could get him for around $35 million per year if they fully guarantee the contract. It could look something like $105 million over three years, fully guaranteed.
Obviously, there’s risk involved in giving a 36-year-old coming off an Achilles injury that kind of contract, but for a Falcons team that is desperate, they aren’t in a position to turn their nose up at a clear upgrade.
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