NFL best bets: Two teams to back and two teams to fade down the stretch
There are only four weeks left in the NFL season, which means it's the perfect time to target a few teams to buy and a few teams to bet against down the stretch. Let's break down two teams to back and two teams to fade with week-to-week and futures bets before Week 15 gets underway.
Two teams to back
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is a classic example of a team that's much better than its record indicates. The Bills rank sixth in DVOA, fifth in net yards per play and fifth in average scoring margin, yet they're only 7-6 due to some untimely mistakes and unlucky breaks.
The Bills lost to the New York Jets in Week 1 on a walk-off punt return touchdown in overtime, fell to the New England Patriots in Week 7 on a touchdown with 12 seconds left, lost to the Denver Broncos in Week 10 due to two lost fumbles and two interceptions and lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 despite outgaining them by 127 yards. Buffalo finally caught some breaks last week in a 20-17 win against the Kansas City Chiefs, so its luck might be turning at the perfect time.
You can still get the Bills at +100 to make the playoffs.
Chicago Bears
This is not the same Bears team we watched in the first half of the season.
Since trading for Montez Sweat, the Bears rank fourth in the NFL in yards allowed, first in opponent passer rating and first in interceptions. Chicago has also racked up 11 sacks over its last four games, which is a massive improvement from its nine sacks over the first nine games.
Justin Fields is building more confidence every week, and the team has no incentive to tank because they own the Carolina Panthers' first-round draft pick in 2024. The Bears finish the season with games against the Cleveland Browns, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers, and they might be undervalued in all four matchups.
Two teams to fade
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers' season is starting to go down the tubes, and it likely hasn't hit rock bottom yet.
Pittsburgh ranks fourth in the NFL in luck rating and 22nd in net yards per play. The New York Jets, Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots all have a better net yards per play mark than the Steelers.
Kenny Pickett has already been ruled out for Week 15. Mitchell Trubisky, who's lost to the Cardinals and Patriots in back-to-back weeks, will start under center for at least one more week. Even if Pickett, coming off an ankle injury, does return this season, there's no guarantee he'll be better than Trubisky.
The Steelers also close the season with the Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens. Would anyone be surprised if they go 0-4 in that stretch?
Washington Commanders
The Commanders are a terrible football team that's only getting worse. Washington has been outscored, 121-44, over its last three games, and the defense now ranks dead last in the NFL in DVOA.
The road doesn't get any easier for the worst passing defense in the league, either. Three of Washington's last four games come against Matthew Stafford, Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott. Add in that Ron Rivera knows his time is up no matter how the team finishes and the Commanders would be better off losing for a better draft pick, and this team is an ideal fade target down the stretch.
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