NFL bets: Turn these lessons into Week 11 cash
Monday night was not great football. Even if you are a Denver fan, you might have trouble saying I told you so. Buffalo has responded by firing their offensive coordinator. It was the logical move even if it might not mean that much.
All across the NFL and college game we are starting to see frustration bubble over. Football seasons are very short which is why our thoughts can change so much from week to week.
Here is what I was thinking about from the week that was Week 10.
AFC Contenders?
Does anyone other than Kansas City want to win the AFC this season? The specifics were different but Buffalo, Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati all lost this past week. Kansas City is hard enough to beat as it is, but if they never have to leave Arrowhead in the playoffs it gets even easier for them. Buffalo and Cincy are not even sure things for the playoffs anymore.
Betting takeaway ... now might be the time to lock in the Chiefs as an AFC Champ bet. The competition is fading and it might get worse. At +210, that is not bad.
San Francisco is Back
The most impressive performance of the week was probably San Francisco's win at Jacksonville. The 49ers were -3 and won by 31 points. It was a complete effort, no doubt aided by the fact that they were healthier than they have been in weeks. The only downside was that they could not get running back Christian McCaffrey into the end zone to set the record for most consecutive games with a score.
Betting takeaway ... Seattle and SF are tied at 6-3 so there might be some value in the NFC West markets, and the NFC overall. This team is looking like it can be elite again.
AFC North
They have no choice but to feast on their own, but even with Cincinnati losing to Houston there was confirmation of the division being the best in the NFL. They are the only group where every team has a winning record and if you watched the Cleveland-Baltimore game you were treated to a fun tilt where teams just didn't quit. The Baltimore loss makes things that much more interesting down the stretch.
Betting takeaway ... the Bengals are a last-place team? All of their future still look like positive propositions to me. They are +550 to win the division and just one loss back of the leaders right now.
Vikings, Baby!
I kind of liked Kirk Cousins more after watching "Quarterback" on Netflix. That said, how can you not like this version of the Vikings led by Joshua Dobbs? Minnesota is 2-0 with their new QB and has five wins in a row. He gives them more athleticism at the position and that is never a bad thing. With a couple of games left against Detroit, there is more to be settled in the NFC North than expected.
Betting takeaway ... Minnesota could easily push to 9-4 with their upcoming schedule. Not bad for a team I think I wrote off a month ago. Things can change very quickly in the NFL. Minnesota is +700 to win the division right now.
Houston Futures
Just like Minnesota, Houston is a surprise in the playoff picture now too. If the season were to end today they would be the last team in. They are +105 to make the playoffs and +275 to win the division. Rookie C.J. Stroud has shown just how valuable a quality quarterback really is and the rest of their schedule is not that daunting. They host Jacksonville next week and if they win that one things really get interesting. It is now or never on these guys though, the values are dropping.
Betting takeaway ... Houston is a team that I do not have a great read on, but I am starting to get there. It is all a matter of whether you like being a first mover.
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