NFL betting: The case for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 8.5 wins

This is another look at a team that we can get a positive payoff right now, oddly enough it's another NFC playoff team (that won a game) from a year ago.

Last year, Tampa Bay said goodbye to Tom Brady and hello to the Baker Mayfield experience. It wasn't perfect, but a division title and a trip to the playoffs was probably not expected. Heading into this season they have locked up Mayfield for a few years and with the offense leading the way, looked poised for more success.

Tampa Bay Over 8.5 Wins (+120)

The NFC South is Weak

Last season the Bucs tied with New Orleans to win the division at 9-8 (which would have cashed this bet, obviously). The division is not expected to be much better this season. New Orleans is rudderless, Atlanta has a new coach and quarterback, and only the latter is an upgrade, and Carolina is still going to be a big-time mess. In a group like this, whoever wins the division should be able to be over .500 again. That would be a cash. 

More Consistency

In 2023, the Bucs had a four-game losing streak, which is not common among winning teams. Some of that was scheduling, with the last two of those four losses on the road, however, with three of those four games decided by less than a touchdown, it is easy to see how a little more consistency could have yielded a better overall result. In two of those games, the winning points were scored in the final minute too. 

Improvement in Rushing Offense and Passing Defense

Playoff teams are not normally last in rushing offense and 29th in passing defense, especially the latter in the modern NFL which is so pass-happy. Improvements in either area, especially the former would make it easier for the Bucs to close out tight games better in 2024, while better pass defense is imperative to overall competitiveness. This is a team that is not going to dominate but marginal improvements will be noticed. 

Favorable Schedule

Playing in this division is still one of the best spots for any team to bank some easy wins, a perfect 6-0 record is definitely in range. I also like the fact that they are taking on the NFC East this season. Of course, Dallas and Philly are legit but the Giants and Commanders are a mess (could be two rookie quarterbacks there). Games against Denver and Las Vegas are going to be winnable too, especially since both of those are going to be at home while they have to visit the Chiefs and Chargers, which might not have been winnable games anyway. 

They Can Add Cheap Talent

The Bucs have their own first-round pick and an extra third-rounder making it such that they have four picks in the top 100. They do not have a roster bursting at the seams with talent, but after extending Mayfield and receiver Mike Evans they can just go through the draft picking the best player available and filling in their roster without reaching for needs. That is always a good approach.