NFL betting: Use these Week 5 lessons to WIN in Week 6
In collecting my thoughts on Week 5, I am left with a bit of a groan, because when I look at the various teams around the league I find myself asking the same question of shouldn't they be better than that? (With the noted exception of San Francisco). This week, teams won and teams lost as they always do and even some of the teams that won should have been better than they looked. Right?
Let's go a little deeper and see what we can really use going forward.
Bills Injuries Mounting
After they beat Miami, even with the ugly loss to start the season, it was easy to make a case that the Bills were a real Super Bowl threat. Now, off another loss, the lights have dimmed. I know Matt Milano is not a household name, but the linebacker was critical to their defense and he is done for the season, a second such injury to a key starter (CB Tre'Davious White was already out). I think the offense is powerful enough to carry the team, and the pass rush is elite, but the power rating on this team has to be down.
Betting takeaway ... there is going to be even more pressure on the offense and QB Josh Allen than there was at the beginning of the season. Look for more high-scoring games from one of the most exciting teams in the league.
San Francisco vs. Philly
There are two undefeated teams left but there is not much debate about who the best team in the NFL is. San Francisco looks unstoppable, winning by an average of 20 ppg thanks to a top offense and defense. It is still pretty amazing how good quarterback Brock Purdy looks back there. Ignoring his draft positioning, he is still very inexperienced by NFL standards, yet he makes it look easy. I know both the Eagles and 49ers have yet to lose but SF is in another tier right now.
Betting takeaway ...These teams do not play each other until the beginning of December (so we have to wait). However, they are not the same, only SF has really earned the right to be a really big favorite.
Worse Situation: Denver or Chicago?
For starters, yes, Denver rallied and beat Chicago a couple of weeks ago. Then followed that up with a loss to the Jets at home while the Bears looked functional in their win over Washington. Denver has a Hall of Fame-bound coach and quarterback but things might be worse at Mile High than in the Windy City right now where the expectations around those involved cannot realistically be all that high, right?
Betting takeaway ... With a quarter of the season now in the books Denver might be a team to write off. If you think it can't get worse and that is the reason you are backing them, that is never any fun.
Short Schedules
Now that we are in the "middle" of the season we are starting to get shorter Sunday slates of games (due to rotating byes). That is not necessarily a bad thing but if you find those "national games" overblown and prefer to find gems nestled in that 1 p.m. ET time slot ("hiding in plain sight") then you are going to have fewer options over the next few weeks.
Betting takeaway ... I know as bettors we love the action but never forget our most powerful tool is to take a pass. If you normally bet five games a week, you should probably reduce the volume when there are fewer games on the schedule. You are probably not in a major contest.
Jacksonville Home Away from Home
The Jags went 2-0 in London. The Bills may have had some complaints about the turf "over there" but that is what happens when there are injuries. I am wondering if there are more teams that might be open to playing more in Europe if they can constructively schedule the games the way the Jags did. Jacksonville is happy for the exposure because the Jags do not get much at home and there are probably some other teams that would benefit similarly. This is more food for thought. Why not have the Vikings be Germany's team?
Betting takeaway ... I am still staying away from these games because I do not know how to factor in some of the things I normally do (home-field advantage, prep schedules, etc). When in doubt, just be a fan.
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