NFL betting: Valuable takeaways for Week 10 and beyond
It is hard to believe that the NFL season is already half over. Heck, I believe there is still even one more game in Germany this weekend. Nevertheless, each week reveals new stories or the continuations of ones that are part of the ongoing narrative of this very interesting season.
Here are some of the things I noticed from last week and how they might impact our ability to pick some winners in the second half.
Low Scoring Continues
The lack of scoring continues in the NFL. Last week four teams won their games scoring just 21 points or less and four losing teams failed to even get into the end zone. While this makes it look like defenses are suddenly dominating, a lot of it is offenses that cannot move the ball and a culture for gambling on it on fourth down that takes some threes off the board.
Betting takeaway ... Not only are unders the right strategy but be wary of banking on backdoor covers. Teams are often showing they are not good enough to take advantage of lax defenses.
Bills in Trouble
Losing at Cincinnati is not the thing; they were not even favored last week. The thing is inconsistency on offense which is even more important this season thanks to injuries on the defensive side. This team seems to be slotting in lower in the AFC rankings every week. They are probably still playoff bound, but they need things to go right if they are going to make any noise there.
Betting takeaway ... I am not off of Buffalo, but an offense that used to be automatic for 28+ points now struggles to score 20. Change your perceptions accordingly.
Giants are Officially Dunzo
The Giants seemed to have a chance at a potential season-turning win last week. Quarterback Daniel Jones was back and they were taking on the Las Vegas Raiders, who had just cleaned house. Instead, they laid an egg, and to be honest, it was the kind of performance that might indicate things have "jumped the shark" for Brian Daboll in New York. Now they have no choice but to let rookie QB Tommy DeVito throw the ball and it is not a good option.
Betting takeaway ... Things might get even worse with a couple of road games coming. I doubt they win another game this season and even covering might be a long shot.
Eagles Soaring
The end of the game against Dallas looked a little funny but the Eagles got the critical win they needed to build a gap between them and the rest of the NFC. I was very impressed with the way they made adjustments at halftime against Dallas. Philly has a great roster, but they also seem to have great confidence in their preparation. They never seem to be in a hurry. They are going to need that with a tough stretch of games coming up.
Betting takeaway ... the next four games are at KC, home to Buffalo and San Francisco, and then at rival Dallas. This week upcoming might be the only time they are not favored this season.
Who #2 in the NFC?
The win by Philadelphia last week widened the gap between the Eagles and the rest of the NFC. The question is who is the next best team? Detroit has the next-best record at 6-2 but sometimes it is hard to get there mentally, right? Then we have the likes of San Francisco, Dallas, and Seattle all at 5-3 but none of those choices feel right based on recent results, all have lost at least their last game. Is it crazy that I like what is brewing in Minnesota, especially with top receiver Justin Jefferson coming back?
Betting takeaway ... Sometimes parity makes for terrible betting markets, especially when it means that teams that are supposed to be reliable get dragged down.
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