NFL divisional round: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills betting picks, preview
The finale of the divisional round will take place between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, and for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen postseason saga, the game will be in Buffalo.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills: Betting Odds
Sunday, Jan. 21, 2024, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Spread: Buffalo -2.5, Over/under: 45.5 points, Kansas City +120 | Buffalo -142
The Chiefs dominated the Miami Dolphins last weekend, winning 26-7, with one long Tyreek Hill touchdown the only damage the Miami offense did all night.
Kansas City (12-6) ended the regular season on a bit of a whimper, but that performance will likely remind bettors that Patrick Mahomes has done this a whole bunch up to this point, and it's probably best to not sleep on the Chiefs.
Kansas City's defensive strength lies in its ability to slow down the pass, ranking as one of the stingiest units no matter how you track passing success. That should make life difficult for Josh Allen and company here.
Buffalo (12-6) handled business against Pittsburgh in the first round, winning 31-17 thanks to four total touchdowns from Josh Allen. The Bills are most definitely one of, if not the hottest team in the NFL. With their backs against the wall, Buffalo rattled off five straight wins to steal the AFC East and now sit here with a home game in the divisional round.
The Bills secondary has been their defensive strength, while Allen's creativity powers the offensive side of things.
Buffalo is 8-10 ATS this year, while the Chiefs are 10-7-1. The Bills are sitting at 11-7 to the under and Kansas City is a league-best 13-5 to the under.
Betting Picks for Kansas City vs. Buffalo
Bills -2.5
We can acknowledge that we did just warn to not underestimate Mahomes and Kansas City, but this just feels like the right time to fade Kansas City. Mahomes has never played a road playoff game, isn't that a bit unbelievable when you consider he's been to three Super Bowls?
Such is the case, and this Buffalo crowd is likely to be rowdy for their Bills. Buffalo has taken enough heartbreak from this KC squad in the postseason, we're ready for some revenge.
One thing going against us here is that the Chiefs are playing on two extra days of rest thanks to the postponement of the Bills-Steelers game last weekend. That could certainly be a factor and is worth flagging.
Buffalo took down Kansas City earlier this season in Arrowhead, 20-17. Here's to another close game, with the Bills getting within a game of their first Super Bowl since 1994.
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