NFL divisional-round lotto ticket parlay: 20x your money with these three players
It has been far too long since we put the magical pieces together on an NFL parlay shared here, and this Divisional Round slate feels like the right time to change our fortune. We've got three players cooked up, and when combined at the below numbers, you'll get a +2042 parlay on DraftKings.
Bet responsibly, and consider betting these three players down at their standard lines: I have. This is an expansion on the reads that seem most promising for the weekend.
Brandon Aiyuk 100+ yards
I love Brandon Aiyuk to have a big day on Saturday night against this Green Bay defense. Aiyuk is the clear deep threat for San Francisco, averaging 17.9 yards/catch and owning a 14.3 aDOT. That role is what we want to see against a Packers team allowing the eighth-most passes of 20+ yards this season.
Aiyuk has 100+ yards in five of seven home games this year, and when he has caught a 20+ yard pass this year at home, he's averaging 118.3 yards/game.
Baker Mayfield over 287.5 passing yards
I'm finding that DraftKings' alternate over/under prices are often comparable to their landmark numbers, i.e. 275+, 300+ etc. Mayfield is +220 to hit 300+ yards and +200 to go over this mark, so I'll gladly sacrifice a bit of odds for the 12 yards we're getting here.
We already loaded up Baker's passing yardage over, and he seems set for another big day. Mayfield has hit this mark in four of his last five games, three times tossing for 309+ yards. The last four QBs to see the Lions have been: Matthew Stafford (367 yards), Nick Mullens (396), Dak Prescott (345) and Mullens again (411). Is it possible we're being too conservative here? Maybe, but I just want a damn win!
Amon-Ra St. Brown over 105.5 receiving yards
We're on St. Brown's over at 91.5 and again, we may be a bit too modest on another big day from the Lions star WR. Tampa Bay is allowing the eighth-most receptions/game to WRs and the second-most passes of 20+ yards, a recipe for a big St. Brown day.
St. Brown has hit this number in four of his past five games and had 124 earlier this season against the Buccaneers.
Let's project for a moment that St. Brown catches 7+ balls (has a 7.5 receptions line), and records at least one catch of 20+ yards. When he hits those two marks in the same game, he's averaging 106.4 yards across 18 such games, and 118.6 yards per game this season. Expect to hear the Lions receiver's name plenty on Sunday.
Altogether, we've got a neat +2042 parlay to ride for the weekend's playoff action. This should be fun.
More must-reads: