NFL futures, 2 Miami Dolphins bets: Can a healthy Tua Tagovailoa be the difference?
We've reached the upper-third of Super Bowl favorites with expectations high in South Beach for 2023. Miami made the playoffs last year despite injury issues at quarterback. Is a healthy Tua Tagovailoa enough to unlock something special this season?
Dolphins high-level odds
- Wins: Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120)
- To Win Division: +300
- To Win Conference: +1100
- To Win Super Bowl: +2200
Miami finished the 2022 season with a 9-8 record, good enough for the last Wild Card spot in the AFC. They kept that playoff game closer than anyone could have expected, considering Skylar Thompson was the quarterback, losing to Buffalo 34-31.
The Dolphins head into 2023 with a mixed bag of certainties and question marks. Confidence for Miami stems from their receiving group, there aren't too many WR-tandems better than the offering here in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
The RB and TE rooms leave a bit to be desired, and the offensive line isn't exactly a strength, but much can be hidden when you have the wide receiver talent that the Dolphins have.
What we don't yet know is how reliable Tua Tagovailoa is at quarterback. When he was healthy, he certainly looked the part, but after a slew of concussions it's fair to worry about how the lefty passer can sustain a lengthy career. Count me in the camp of a believer in Tagovailoa's talent. There was a clear drop off when he was forced to leave the field, and he showed a proclivity to find his talented playmakers deep down the field. It's just about health to me.
On the defensive side of the ball, Miami has some solid pieces, namely in the secondary. An almost forgotten move of the offseason may be that the Dolphins added cornerback Jalen Ramsey, forming quite the menacing secondary alongsides Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland.
Two futures bets to make on the Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins to miss playoffs (-110 DK)
Found under "Futures"
At this point, we've already gone through quite the slew of AFC teams, and we have quite the batch to go. It's no secret but bears repeating, the AFC is going to be an absolute slog this season.
I'm not convinced Miami is in this upper echelon of teams. Buffalo and New York both seem better positioned within the AFC East, which would conceivably leave just two Wild Card spots for Miami to pounce on. The AFC North is the better division, offering at minimum three viable playoff teams, and the AFC West has three teams of their own that will be pushing to lock down one of those spots.
Are star receivers and a strong secondary enough in this conference? I'm not convinced, and unfortunately feel that fading Miami is the best course of action until Tagovailoa can show that he's unaffected by the rough 2022 he had on his body and mind.
Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle to have 1500+ receiving yards this season (+100 DK)
Found under "Team Specials"
Tyreek Hill's over/under is set at 1300.5 and Jaylen Waddle's is set at 1075.5, and both overs are set at plus money. I'd be okay with splitting a unit across each of those overs (both hit last year), or you could just bet on one of these talented pass catchers putting up a big season regardless of who is throwing them the football.
Hill finished his first season as a Dolphin with 1,710 yards, his best statistical season yet as a pro. Waddle finished Year Two with 1,356 yards, up from 1,015 as a rookie.
Miami's offensive philosophy seems clear, get the ball in these two's hands as much as possible. Both ranked inside the top 25 of targets last season and figure to be used just as heavily in 2023. One of these two, or both, seems likely to have another big year.
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