NFL futures: AFC Conference winner odds and a pick
It's no secret that the AFC is the more loaded conference, which opens up some exciting possibilities in the futures market.
The quality of quarterbacks in the AFC far outstrips its NFC counterparts, and we as fans seem likely to be treated to competitive playoff fixtures in this conference for years to come. As we sit here a month out from training camp, it seems like the right time to jump into the market, see who is favored, and find any potential value.
Odds to win AFC in 2024
Stated differently, a bet in this market is a bet on who you expect to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
- Kansas City Chiefs (+330)
- Buffalo Bills (+500)
- Cincinnati Bengals (+550)
- New York Jets (+1100)
- Miami Dolphins (+1100)
- Baltimore Ravens (+1100)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+1200)
- Los Angeles Chargers (+1300)
- Cleveland Browns (+2200)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+2500)
- Denver Broncos (+2500)
- New England Patriots (+3500)
- Las Vegas Raiders (+4000)
- Tennessee Titans (+5500)
- Indianapolis Colts (+7000)
- Houston Texans (+10000)
The Chiefs and Bengals have been the only two teams to reach the Super Bowl out of the AFC over the past four seasons, with Kansas City reaching the big game three times. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are the understandable favorites and should once again win the AFC West, but we'd rather look elsewhere.
Will Josh Allen and the Bills ever get over the hump and reach the Super Bowl? They've been close, yet haven't reached the AFC Championship Game in two seasons. The Bengals, meanwhile, have gotten to the penultimate game in two straight years and have their core in place to run it back.
Aaron Rodgers joining the Jets has made New York a futures darling, which seems a bit overstated. Rodgers has reached only one Super Bowl, way back in 2011. There were some talented Green Bay teams during that stretch, and while New York does have strong pieces in place, his addition to Gang Green seems to be inflating their odds just a bit.
Our pick in this market
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1200)
Who doesn't like some fresh blood? Trevor Lawrence, Doug Pederson and the Jacksonville Jaguars seem like a team poised to be a postseason staple for years to come.
It was encouraging to see Jacksonville win a playoff game this past season, the first with Pederson at the helm, and the second year for franchise QB Lawrence.
The Jags then played the Chiefs competitively in the divisional round, something they should be able to build on for the 2023 season and beyond.
Jacksonville has a strong roster in place. On offense, Lawrence is surrounded by a very good skill-position group. Calvin Ridley is the new addition, and he could be a potentially dynamic option after missing last year due to suspension. Ridley joins a group that includes Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram and Travis Etienne.
The Jaguars also have a quality offensive line to protect Lawrence and allow him to get the ball to his playmakers, so expect some high-scoring games from this Jacksonville team.
The defense also has some very nice pieces in place, from Josh Allen to Devin Lloyd to Travon Walker to Tyson Campbell, to name a few.
Two things put Jacksonville over the edge for us in this market. For one, coaching matters, and Pederson proved that he is an above-average coach in this league based on his first year in Florida. In Pederson's second year in Philadelphia, he led the Eagles to a Super Bowl win. With a year entrenched in Jacksonville and his quarterback secure, who's to say he can't replicate that success?
The second factor that gives the Jaguars some value is their division. Go back and look at the odds for each team to advance to the Super Bowl. Anything stick out as you look at the bottom of the board? The three teams with the longest odds all reside in the AFC South.
This suggests a relatively easy path to a playoff home game for Jacksonville, and it's not inconceivable to imagine the Jags grabbing six division wins to buoy their record this season.
The same cannot be said for any other team at the top of this market, making our choice clear.
We're betting Jacksonville to win the AFC at +1200.
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