NFL futures, two Atlanta Falcons bets: Does offense finally break out?
Atlanta has been drafting skill-position players with their first-round pick for three straight seasons. 2023 could be the year it pops.
Falcons high-level odds
- Wins: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
- To Win Division: +215
- To Win Conference: +2800
- To Win Super Bowl: +6500
Atlanta finished 2022 at 7-10, in a three-way tie for the second-best record in the NFC South. The Falcons trotted out Marcus Mariota for most of the season, but eventually turned to rookie Desmond Ridder at QB, and it's Ridder who is expected to have a full year at the helm in 2023.
Atlanta has been pouring in serious resources to their offensive skill-position players. They took TE Kyle Pitts in the first round in 2021, WR Drake London in the first in 2022, and RB Bijan Robinson in this past draft at No. 8 overall.
On paper, it's easy to get excited about what this Falcons offense might look like. That's a ton of young, dynamic talent, and now it becomes can Arthur Smith and this offensive staff properly utilize them. Pitts averaged just 5.9 targets per game last season finishing with 356 yards in 10 games. He's scored just three touchdowns in two seasons, and the hope is that Pitts can boom in Year Three.
Drake London had a solid rookie season, finishing with 866 yards on 72 receptions, and he popped for some big games once Ridder took over, an encouraging sign for how 2023 may go.
The defense has some intriguing pieces at all three levels, and Atlanta invested significant resources into their defensive line this offseason, which should help bolster a group that has struggled the past few years.
Two futures bets to make on the Atlanta Falcons
Desmond Ridder over 2600.5 passing yards (+100 DK)
Found under 'Player totals'
Let's stick with what has been a very offensive-focused team preview. I for one am looking forward to seeing what the Falcons do with all of these pieces, and I'm investing in Desmond Ridder because of it.
A 2600.5 yards line suggests the books aren't too sure Ridder plays the entire season at quarterback. Atlanta signed Taylor Heinicke this offseason, but I'm sorry — Heinicke is never going to be a franchise passer in the NFL. Ridder likely won't either, but he could. For a team that isn't seriously competing for a Super Bowl, they should give Ridder every opportunity to show that he is someone worth building around.
In four starts last year, he averaged 177 passing yards per game. Extrapolate that across a 17-game season, and that comes in at 3,009 yards. He did not have Pitts in the lineup for those games, and he has some new quality pieces at WR beyond London in Mack Hollins and Scottie Miller.
It also doesn't hurt that rookie RB Bijan Robinson is lauded for his ability to catch the football out of the backfield. I'm in on this soft line.
Falcons to win Division (+210 DK)
Found under 'Team Futures'
The Saints don't excite me much in this division, I'd rather take a stab on some plus-money. As mentioned the other day, Carolina is another team I'm high on in 2023, and would it be so crazy to see those two jockeying for the top spot in this lowly division? I think not.
Atlanta's biggest strength was likely their offensive line in 2022, particularly their run-blocking. That unit remains mostly intact, with rookie Matthew Bergeron set to upgrade on the LG spot. The team ran the football a lot last season, and with Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson still in the fold to spell Robinson, they are capable of wearing down defenses this seaosn.
The team has brought in some new defensive pieces, and a bet here very much hinges on Ridder being a quality quarterback. Seems worth a sprinkle to me.
Atlanta won four of their last five games last season, here's to carrying that over into 2023.
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