The Pittsburgh Steelers have been busy during the first week of the NFL's new league year. They have signed several new players including Cole Holcomb, Nate Herbig, and Patrick Peterson. They have also lost a few players to other teams including Robert Spillane, Devin Bush, and Cameron Sutton.
NFL Insider, Cynthia Frelund spoke on the NFL Network about some of her biggest 'analytic fits and head-scratchers.' The Steelers came up twice in her report and neither opinion was in Pittsburgh's favor.
The Pittsburgh Steelers Have Frelund Scratching Her Head
Frelund was the first analytics expert for the NFL. She uses math to predict success trends in all facets of professional football. That includes which markets are most likely to be lucrative in hosting a team as well as player success and trending changes.
Each year, she uses her model to review which free agency selections will be most and least successful. This year she discussed seven free agency moves and to see Pittsburgh come up twice in an unfavorable way is a bit concerning.
Steelers Cam Sutton Goes To The Detroit Lions
The first Steelers free agency move she discussed is the Detroit Lions signing Sutton. Frelund said:
"I don't usually talk about the Detroit Lions in this category but Cam Sutton to the Lions is an epic pick. The Lions have an obvious need in the secondary and Cam Sutton's ability to basically play at the same level of man, so the percentage of man both teams play is around the same. So you can kind of forecast how he will be such a great ball hawk, this guy who absolutely just shuts people down right away. I love that fit as well."
Frelund also said in the accompanying article:
"Don't let the splashier names in free agency overshadow this signing. There are two key Next Gen Stats categories in which Sutton ranked as the third-best outside corner in the NFL last season: receptions over expected allowed (-9.5) and ballhawk rate (20.8%). Though he was a part of a Steelers secondary that had some challenges as a unit, Sutton allowed just 411 total yards in coverage, according to PFF, which ranked fifth-best among corners who logged at least 400 coverage snaps."
According to Frelund, the Lions and Steelers played similar rates of man coverage in 2022, which helps project Sutton's value. She sees him as versatile enough to be used in a variety of ways - against slot receivers, running backs, and tight ends, but he is best as an outside corner.
Pittsburgh Signs Former Minnesota Viking Patrick Peterson
Frelund doesn't see this as a great fit for the Steelers:
"I'm a little confused about what we're going to see from Patrick Peterson. This one is about fit. Yes, he had his best statistical season last year since 2018. I think a lot of his numbers and statistics and production came when they were playing zone. So how much zone are they really going to play, I told you they play a lot of man in Pittsburgh. That fit is a little bit confusing for me and they still don't have that number one corner to go with those great pass rushers."
She is definitely worried about Peterson mixing in well with Pittsburgh's defense:
"My concern stems from how Peterson will mesh with the Steelers' approach. Computer vision shows that his strongest production results occurred in zone defense. That assessment is supported by how he fared when the Vikings used single-high coverage. Peterson allowed 2.4 yards of separation as the nearest defender in 2022, which ranked 40th among CBs, per NGS. The Steelers used single-high coverage on 64.7% of drop backs, the fourth-highest rate last season - and they will presumably stick to similar concepts again."
Frelund is saying that the Steelers lost out on both of these free-agency moves. Of course, it remains to be seen how they will perform in 2023 and beyond. What do you think of Frelund's comments? Do you agree with her assessment of Peterson and Sutton? How do you think Peterson will adjust to the Steelers' defense? Click to
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