NFL picks: Week 7

The line has moved in Arizona's favor since opening at -1.5 for Denver, then increasing to 2.5 points on Monday afternoon. Denver has suffered four straight losses and is banged up on the offensive line. Case Keenum could need to play well to quiet a developing quarterback controversy, but it's worth noting that the Cardinals have still scored more than 17 points just once this season.

The Titans offensive line is in shambles, if their 11 sacks allowed vs. Baltimore is any indication. But the Chargers are still without Joey Bosa and rank just 13th in sack percentage (7.0 percent). Before getting shutout by Baltimore last week, the Titans had four straight games decided by three points or less and look to get back on track in London.

Both teams have quietly won back-to-back games, and the Jets offense is really clicking, with 34 points vs. Denver and 42 points against Indy. However, the loss of Quincy Enunwa is costly for New York, and on the Vikings side, Kirk Cousins has shown he can keep up. The possible return of Dalvin Cook would be a big bonus for Minnesota.

Both of these teams have been quite inconsistent this season, with the Panthers needing a last-minute 63-yard field goal to beat the Giants in Week 5 and then losing to Washington in Week 6. Meanwhile, the Eagles lost back-to-back games at Tennessee and vs. Minnesota before dominating the Giants last Thursday. Carson Wentz started to get his feet under him in his last start; the Panthers lack the receiving threats to expose what's been a weak secondary in Philly.

This matchup was off the board until Wednesday, when Brock Osweiler was named the Dolphins for at least another week. The Lions are 4-1 against the spread this year and have had the bye to prepare for Osweiler.

Buffalo will be without rookie quarterback Josh Allen, so the question remains whether the Bills will turn to Nathan Peterman or throw newly signed Derek Anderson in the fray. For his career, Peterman has now completed 44.3 percent of his passes with 3/9 TD/INT, but Anderson was signed recently off the street and might not have much left. What a mess.

The sky is falling in Jacksonville after getting blown out in consecutive games, while Houston has three straight victories. However, Houston scored only 19 points at home and needed overtime to beat the Cowboys, then scored 20 points at home vs. Buffalo. This offense is still struggling mightily and could be the perfect remedy for the Jaguars to get back on track. Houston also has the worst record against the spread this season at 1-5.

New England is just 3-3 against the spread this season. The last time the Pats failed to have a winning record against the spread was 2015 (8-8-2), and the team is a league-best 162-111-7 since 2003, according to TeamRankings.com. The offense has scored at least 38 points in three straight games, and Chicago's offense could have a tough time keeping up with Mitchell Trubisky's continued propensity for turnovers.

Heads are starting to roll in Tampa Bay, where the Bucs fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith this week. That said, the offense showed well out of the bye week, scoring 29 points at Atlanta, and is facing a Browns team that was blown out by the Chargers last week. Cleveland has played only two road games and lost both of them (New Orleans and Oakland).

It's a classic offense vs. defense matchup this week, featuring the top scoring offense (Saints) vs. the top scoring defense (Saints). While the Saints are 2-0 on the road this season, those games came at Atlanta and the Giants. Baltimore has played only two home games, blowing out Buffalo and Denver. If Joe Flacco can show anything against the weak Saints secondary, the Ravens should have an edge.

Both of these NFC East rivals are coming off wins, but neither has won back-to-back games this season. Dallas is 0-3 on the road, losing to Carolina, Seattle and Houston. Washington hasn't been any more consistent but has big home wins vs. Green Bay and Carolina in two of the last three weeks. Washington remains banged up, but Alex Smith's conservative play could be the difference between two vanilla offenses.

The Rams have had consecutive scares on the road, and the line has already moved in San Francisco's favor from 11.0 points. For all the success the Niners had against the Packers defense on Monday, they still fell short. The Packers' one-dimensional offense limited them for much of the game, but Todd Gurley has been hot lately and could be too much for San Fran.

Despite losing their first game of the season in Week 6, the Chiefs are 6-0 against the spread. The offense continues to be underestimated and faces a Bengals team that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game. Unless Joe Mixon can keep Patrick Mahomes and Co. off the field, this should be a very high-scoring affair.

How bad is it in New York? Fans are calling for Eli Manning's benching after a historically awful performance last Thursday, but Atlanta's defense could be the perfect remedy, allowing 31.0 points per game. While Atlanta has scored 34-plus points in three out of five games, it's easy to forge that it has also allowed at least 29 in each of the last four weeks.