NFL picks: Week 9

The Bay Area teams continue to find ways to lose ball games, entering the Thursday night game with one win a piece. The 49ers have played only three home slates this season and have a great chance to take advantage of a Raiders defense allowing 4.9 yards per carry. Oakland has also lost three games in a row by at least two touchdowns.

The Ravens have lost three of four as they head into this critical AFC North matchup. They already won 26-14 at Pittsburgh and remain the top defense in the league despite their recent struggles. In addition, Baltimore's only home loss was two weeks ago, falling 24-23 to New Orleans on a missed extra point to end the game.

Atlanta has been one of this year's most disappointing teams and is just 2-5 against the spread. However, the Falcons are coming off a bye week and are set to face a Washington team that's really struggled to generate offense (20.9 points per game). Atlanta won two in a row before the bye, with a defense that seems to be finally coming around just a bit.

Even despite a frustrating 28-14 loss to Seattle last week, the Lions have the second best record against the spread, at 5-2. They've yet to lose a road game by more than a field goal, providing some hope they can keep this road game close.

The Browns cleaned house on Monday by firing head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Cleveland is 2-5-1 despite being +11 in the turnover margin, which is nothing short of unbelievable. The team has been competitive at home (2-1-1), and a hot Nick Chubb could cause problems for the Chiefs defense that has allowed 5.4 yards per carry and could be without Anthony Hitchens.

It's FitzMagic time again. Ryan Fitzpatrick nearly brought Tampa back from an 18-point deficit last week at Cincinnati and has been one of the league's most productive quarterbacks when he's played. Carolina is 4-0 at home this season, but the Bucs have lost only one game by more than five points.

Miami had a few extra days to mend its wounds after a terrible Thursday night performance in Houston. The Dolphins remain banged up, particularly at wideout, but are 3-1 at home this year and already beat New York 20-12 on the road. The Jets' mediocre run defense (4.4 yards per carry allowed) isn't a great matchup vs. Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore.

The Bills defense has proven reputable, but Nathan Peterman is set to start at quarterback. He's been a turnover machine since we first saw him against the Chargers last season, and facing the Bears defense is no remedy.

Both of these teams are on fire, with the Chargers winning four straight and the Seahawks winning four of five. L.A. is coming off a bye after a close call in London but will be facing a Seattle defense that's really come into its own, allowing 17 or fewer points in all four of its recent wins. Melvin Gordon's likely return from injury and effectiveness could determine this one, as Seattle has struggled against the run (4.5 yards per carry allowed).

Houston has won five straight games, and Deshaun Watson is coming off easily the best game of his season. He still has a tough task ahead at Denver, as the Broncos are 2-2 at home with their only losses vs. KC (27-23) and the Rams (23-20). The defense also played relatively well at Kansas City last week.

The clear game of the week is a possible AFC Championship preview between the 6-1 Saints and 8-0 Rams. L.A. is still undefeated but has had some close calls in three of the last four weeks with a defense that has certainly bent. The Saints have actually played only one home game over their last five contests, making their recent winning streak all the more impressive.

Green Bay nearly pulled off a win at the Rams last week, but Foxborough presents a tougher home-field advantage. The Patriots are now 4-0 at home this season, with only one game won by less than a touchdown, while Green Bay is 0-3 on the road. Bill Belichick is 5-3 against the spread this season and 84-58-4 ATS at Foxborough since 2003, according to TeamRankings.com.

The expectations for the Cowboys have been raised after acquiring Amari Cooper, but Dallas has a tough matchup against a Titans defense that allows only 226.4 passing yards per game. We're likely to see a defensive struggle, with both teams allowing less than 20 points per game this season.