NFL Playoffs: Wiesguy's 2 Picks and a Prop for Ravens-Bengals
This is yet another divisional rematch but instead of the storylines being about hated rivals it has mostly been about the health of Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. He is out and might have played his last game in a Ravens uniform as a result.
Cincinnati has been one of the hottest teams in the second half of the season while Baltimore has struggled down the stretch without Jackson. These teams split during the regular season with the home team winning each game.
Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, January 15, 2023
8:15 PM ET
PayCor Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
Spread: Bengals -8.5
Total: 40.5
With Jackson ruled out we have seen this line jump, and across the sacred number of 7 too. The total has come down at the same time.
Spread Pick: Bengals -8.5
Even if Lamar had played, the Bengals would have been the play for me. With the number crossing 7, there is a little more risk, but I don't trust the Ravens to be able to muster consistent offense. With their backup QBs they can run similar stuff because they are athletic, but they lose their big play ability. Cincinnati is loaded on offense and they can win this game with margin by scoring a lot, or by playing mistake-free football, something like 24-7.
Total Pick: Under
Similar to the side play above I do not trust Baltimore to score much. I do see a scenario where things get wacky in the snow and this game turns into a major rout for Cincinnati. If Burrow is really cooking with the weapons he has the Bengals could easily score in the 30s and it might be hard to keep it under then. More likely they score in the high 20s and in an easy in the total comes in under the numbers. This is definitely not going to be a shutout, especially with the way that Cincy makes defensive adjustments at the half.
Prop Pick: Outcome of Baltimore Ravens 1st Drive Score (+210)
With no Lamar Jackson, the Ravens are in a bad spot offensively. They are well-coached though and I am really relying on that group to come up with a great game script to start. I don't see if keeping up over the course of the contest but I would not be surprised if they are winning 7-0 or 3-0 after their first possession. With Justin Tucker at kicker, they might not have to get as many yards as you think.
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