NFL prop bet: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The last game of the divisional round may be the best of the bunch, with the No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs hosting the No. 3 Buffalo Bills in a clash of two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
While it's the late Sunday game, it's the first one I have a prop finalized for. We'll be going back to a Super Wild Card weekend winner with this rushing prop.
Josh Allen over 48.5 rushing yards (-122 on FanDuel)
This was highlighted last week against the Patriots at 44.5, a number Allen easily surpassed. The amazing part of that hit was how close he came on Buffalo's very first drive, racking up 41 yards in the first three minutes.
What that shows you is a quarterback that has no hesitation to tuck it and run, and a team that is comfortable calling designed runs for their franchise passer.
This number is 51.5 on DraftKings as of this writing, so to get three extra yards is a gift from FanDuel.
As you can see from the above, it doesn't matter how you slice Allen's recent splits, the rushing is as prevalent as it has been all year.
He's gone over this line in four straight and five of six, averaging 68.5 yards per game in this hit-streak.
Last year when the Bills played the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, Allen finished with 88 rushing yards. He also went over this total in their previous meeting this season, finishing with 59 yards.
I told myself I'd be betting this prop again this weekend. There just seems to be something about Josh Allen and the playoffs that leads to more rushing yards.
Further aiding our betting chances is the Chiefs run defense, their clear weakness. Kansas City is tied for the second-highest rushing yards per attempt allowed to opponents, at 4.7.
That number shows me a defense that has let up chunk runs all season, perfectly setting us up for this prop bet to cover. Allen is averaging 11.8 yards per carry in his past two games, a gargantuan number.
To wrap this pick, let's talk about Chris Jones, the star defensive lineman for Kansas City.
Jones is one of the best pass-rushers in the league, and matched up against an average interior offensive line for Buffalo, he should be able to penetrate the pocket repeatedly.
All that does for me is suggest even more scrambles for Allen as he's flushed out.
This should be a great game, and we may have more props coming, but for now, this is my favorite of the day.
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