NFL 'TNF' player prop: Carr sustains drives

Although they sport identical 7-7 records, the NFC squads playing on Thursday night occupy very different positions in the playoff picture. The Rams currently own a wild-card spot despite being four games behind the 49ers in the West. Meanwhile, the Saints sit outside of the field but could win the South by beating the two division rivals remaining on their schedule. In a game that will significantly impact the postseason, expected passing volume is the basis for our top prop:

The bet: Over 33½ pass attempts for Saints quarterback Derek Carr (BetMGM)

During his first year as the starter for New Orleans, Carr has rarely had a full complement of weapons. Running back Alvin Kamara was serving a suspension for the first three games, tight end Juwon Johnson missed the next four with a calf injury, and wide receiver Michael Thomas has been out since the first quarter of Week 10 due to an injured knee.

In fact, no skill-position player has taken the field with Carr for all 14 games. But he has still managed to exceed 300 passing yards five times, attempting 50 or more passes twice. And even without top target Chris Olave in Sunday’s victory over the Giants, he completed a season-high 82% of his throws.

The surging Rams have won four of the five games since their Week 10 bye, with the lone loss coming to the Ravens in overtime. Opposing passers have cleared this number in every one of them, posting consecutive totals of 40, 45, 44, 43 and 36.

Facing the league’s 21st-ranked pass defense as a four-point underdog, Carr should likewise be letting it rip.