NFL 'TNF' Week 8: Best bets and preview for Bills vs. Bucs

We've got a lopsided matchup on "Thursday Night Football" this week, as the Buffalo Bills will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite losing two of their last three games, the Bills are nearly double-digit favorites at home because the Bucs have struggled mightily with top competition this year. 

With such a large spread and a tricky betting situation, let's find a way to make some cash on "TNF" this week.

Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers betting odds

Spread: Bills -9, Over/under: 43.5, Moneyline: Bills -440 | Buccaneers +340

This week's "TNF" matchup features two teams going in the wrong direction. The Bills are coming off a stunning loss to the New England Patriots in Week 7, and they nearly lost to the New York Giants a week before as 15.5-point favorites. Buffalo's defense is struggling with Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones all on IR, and this team doesn't look like the Super Bowl contender we thought it was heading into the season.

As for the Buccaneers, they're coming off a sloppy, 16-13 loss to the Atlanta Falcons at home, and they've now lost three of their last four games after starting the season 2-0. Tampa Bay has stepped up in class twice this year against the Philadelphia Eagles and the Detroit Lions, and it lost both games by a combined 28 points.

Oddsmakers are expecting the Bills to have a bounceback performance on Thursday night, but Josh Allen and Co. have failed to cover in three straight games. 

'Thursday Night Football' best bets

Over 43.5 (-110 FanDuel)

No one wants to click submit on an over including the Buccaneers right now. Tampa Bay has scored only 19 points over its last two games, and Baker Mayfield has cooled off after his hot start to the season. Mayfield should be able to put up points against this banged-up defense, though.

The Bills gave up 364 yards of offense and 29 points to an inept Patriots offense last week. Without three of its best defensive players, Buffalo failed to generate pressure and made Mac Jones look like a superstar. Mayfield doesn't have to be a superstar in this game, but he can score by targeting mismatches with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the outside. 

As for the Bills, they've put up at least 20 points in five of their seven games this year, and this isn't a scary matchup against a mediocre Bucs defense. 

Mike Evans over 56.5 receiving yards (-110 FD)

We're expecting the Bills to jump out to an early lead on "TNF," which will force the Buccaneers to air it out in chase mode. That's great news for Evans, who's gone over 56.5 receiving yards four times in six games this season.

With Godwin dealing with a neck injury, Evans will be Mayfield's best option in the passing game all night. If the game script plays out like we expect, he should cruise over this number.