NFL Week 12: New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins betting picks, preview
As if three games on Thanksgiving weren't enough, the NFL is hooking us up with a Black Friday battle between the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins to enjoy as we nurse our food hangover. Let's break down the AFC East matchup and find some winning bets along the way.
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins betting odds, preview
Spread: Dolphins -10, Over/under: 41, Moneyline: Dolphins -550 | Jets +410
We circled this as a crucial AFC East matchup before the season, but with Aaron Rodgers out of the lineup since Week 1, that's not exactly what we're looking at this week.
The Jets have finally bailed on the Zach Wilson experiment and will start 29-year-old Tim Boyle against the Dolphins, which is why Miami is such a massive favorite on the road. Boyle is 0-3 in his NFL career as a starter with three touchdown passes and nine interceptions in 120 attempts. The Jets are going to struggle to score, as they have all season, against a healthy Dolphins defense with Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard on the field.
The Dolphins haven't had that issue this year. Miami ranks first in the NFL with 30.5 points and 434 yards of offense per game. This talented Jets defense might be able to hold the Dolphins in check for a while, but it's nearly impossible to shut down Tyreek Hill for a full 60 minutes.
Jets vs. Dolphins betting picks
Under 41 (-110 FanDuel)
This is strictly a bet against Boyle and the Jets. Boyle completed just seven of his 14 pass attempts for 33 yards and a pick last week in limited action against the Buffalo Bills, and we can't imagine it will look much better on a short week.
On the other side of the ball, the Jets have the recipe to contain Hill and Jaylen Waddle with cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, so they're going to make Miami work for touchdowns. They can hold the Dolphins to less than 28 points, and the Jets will struggle to reach double digits.
Garrett Wilson over 4.5 receptions (-125 DraftKings)
The Jets won't have much success on offense in this game, but Wilson should still see a ton of targets. Boyle targeted Wilson four times in his first eight pass attempts last week, and he should continue to feed his most talented weapon in his first start of 2023.
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