NFL Week 18: Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints betting picks, preview
Both of these teams are still alive for the NFC playoffs. Without making it too complicated, they would both need to win and need some help from Tampa Bay and some other teams (P.S. The Buccaneers are playing the Panthers which is why it is assumed they will win the NFC South.). Nevertheless, this is one of several games this weekend with something at stake.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Trends and Odds
Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024 — 1 p.m. ET
Spread: New Orleans -3, Over/under 42, Atlanta +175 | New Orleans -145
Atlanta beat New Orleans when these teams met earlier in the season. They were -1 at home. This line is unsurprising with the Saints favored at home, though marginally. They are the team in better form too, having won three of their last four, while Atlanta has done the inverse. To be honest, I was surprised the Falcons still had some math on their side given their stumbles down the stretch.
Picks for Atlanta vs. New Orleans
New Orleans -3, Race to 25 Points - Neither (+105)
New Orleans is not an exciting team to back. They seem to be all in on neither their present nor their future. They do win more often than not at home though and have won and covered the last two times they were home favorites. With these two teams, I would not expect either to run away from the other. Atlanta has the splashier talent at the skill positions, but without a deft quarterback to guide their offense they have been in the wilderness much of the season. I am looking for a game where each team has a little success on both sides of the ball. There will be some flashy plays, the defenses will flex a little, and whoever has the ball last wins. If that last drive results in a touchdown we win and it is a field goal we push. Look to tease this line too for sure.
The last time these teams met, it was a 24-15 final so we have at least one obvious data point in support of this prop. Atlanta is averaging just 19 ppg on offense this season and New Orleans is just a field goal better at 22 ppg. With a lot at stake, the game is going to be heavily managed to avoid mistakes, not pump up the score. Look for the winner to not score more than the last time these teams met.
So far the money is even on this game but the ticket count indicates the Saints are the more popular play. Check the entire market for sure because I have seen some +3.5s and +4s. At that number, I would probably switch my pick.
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