NFL Week 1 bets: Last season's over/under trends and how they can help with your bets
We already covered the best and worst NFL betting teams against the spread if you're interested, and now we turn to totals. While player props continue to grow in popularity, there's still an avid betting population that focuses in on a game's over or under.
The numbers can shift wildly in this market, but the trends help tell a more complete story.
NFL best teams at hitting the over in 2022
- Minnesota Vikings (12-6)
- Chicago Bears (10-7)
- Detroit Lions (10-7)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-9)
- Arizona Cardinals (8-7-2)
Curiously, only five teams in the NFL last season hit the over in more than half their games. Five teams were at an exact 50-50 split, but the rest of the league skewed to the under.
Minnesota led the way at 12-6 to the over thanks to the Offensive Player of the Year in Justin Jefferson and a porous secondary. Chicago's defense was also a major factor to their placement here, and the explosiveness of Justin Fields helped them pour on points from both sides.
Since 2020, the Vikings are 34-16-1 to the over.
NFL best teams at hitting the under in 2022
- Tennessee Titans (12-5)
- New York Jets (12-5)
- Washington Commanders (11-5-1)
- Baltimore Ravens (12-6)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-6)
- New Orleans Saints (11-6)
- Denver Broncos (11-6)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-6)
- Buffalo Bills (11-7)
- Cincinnati Bengals (11-7-1)
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-7-1)
- Atlanta Falcons (10-7)
- Indianapolis Colts (10-7)
- Houston Texans (10-7)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
An astounding 15 teams hit their unders in at least 56% of their games last season. With odds typically at -110 for both sides of a total, if you were to bet every single NFL under last season, you would have made quite the bit of money. It will be interesting to see if last year's trends cause lower lines in 2023 or if we'll see some evening out in this market.
Of the 15 teams here, 11 of them find themselves on this list because of a bottom-12 offense. Buffalo and Cincinnati's presence on this list is far more because of their defenses, allowing the fourth and fifth-fewest points per game respectively.
Week 1 games of interest
All three of the below games highlight two teams that hit their under far more often than not last season.
Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints (41.5 points) — The Saints and Titans both had poor offenses last year that contributed to their under rate. Does the presence of Derek Carr at QB elevate the New Orleans offense enough for you to avoid this under? This is the second-lowest total of Week 1. Tennessee's defense leaves quite a bit to be desired, which is a potential flag for their under, but this offense with Ryan Tannehill at the helm does not bring about much confidence.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (46 points) — The Bills and Jets have gone under this total in three straight meetings, but now Aaron Rodgers is in town. That is sure to have an impact on New York, especially as last season's fourth-lowest scoring team. Buffalo's defense has been one of the best at limiting points, and the Jets have an elite defense of their own. Despite Rodgers and Josh Allen, we lean the under here.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens (44 points) — What does Houston's offense look like with CJ Stroud under center? How does Baltimore's offense look with the best receivers Lamar Jackson has ever had — plus a healthy Jackson? These two went under a lot in 2022, but points could be flowing here, especially with holes for both defenses.
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