NFL Week 1: Betting on the Bills' Gabriel Davis
We've made it to the NFL! I'd like to use this space to highlight my preferred props and what you can expect from me this NFL season.
Long reception props are my favorite props on the market and where I am devoting my attention to in 2022. If you've never bet on these player props before, you are in for an absolute treat, especially if you're watching the game.
This is a bet on one singular play. You're betting on your receiver to exceed a certain amount of yards on one catch. Not only is it exhilarating to see a deep bomb land in the arms of your guy, but there is a rich amount of data to help fuel these picks. This was my most successful prop last year, and it's for that reason I want to give this market the attention it deserves.
We have some extremely talented and proven receivers hitting the field in the season's first game on Thursday, namely Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. That's not where our bet is going, however.
It's time for Gabriel Davis
Gabe Davis has been generating buzz for some time now, with its crescendo his performance against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round: 8 receptions, 201 yards, 4 touchdowns.
Davis is stepping into the WR2 role in Buffalo this year, as Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley are both no longer on the team (more on that in a moment).
By the end of last year, Davis was playing more than 80% of the offensive snaps, a number that should near 85% this season.
He was targeted 27 times in Buffalo's final three games of the year, three more than Diggs. We have the role and volume we covet when honing in a prop, so check that box.
Davis is a deep threat, and even more so this season
When betting on a player to hit his long reception over, you'd like to see that he's being worked down the field. Sure, a guy can catch it short and make something happen after the catch, but we'd prefer for this number to be reached through the air.
Average depth of target (aDOT) is a metric you can expect me to drop in every article. aDOT quantifies how far down the field a player is being targeted. The higher the number, the more of a consistent vertical threat he is.
When looking at receivers who had a minimum of 30 targets in 2021, Davis' aDOT ranked 16th in the league (13.3).
Let's go back to Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders outpaced Davis in targets and snaps for much of the year in Buffalo, and he was quietly one of the most profitable receivers to bet on for a long catch. His aDOT of 14.96 was fourth-highest in the NFL.
That's the role I expect Davis to occupy this year.
20+ yard catches galore
While these lines will go above 19.5 yards for the more notable receivers, tracking how many 20+ yard passes is an easy way to measure a WR's role in the offense.
Despite a limited role in 2021, Davis topped Bills receivers with 13 catches of 20+ yards. Diggs was behind him at 12, and Sanders finished with 10. Cole Beasley chipped in five. Few quarterbacks have a prettier deep ball than Josh Allen, and him completing so many 20+ yard passes to his receivers is a great sign of things to come for Davis this season.
Opponent matters
A player can be a great deep threat, but who he is playing is obviously a massive factor. Certain defensive schemes and individuals on the defense offer a more favorable path to these chunk plays we need to cash this prop.
Buffalo will be visiting the defending champion Rams in Los Angeles to start the year. In 2021, the Rams allowed 61 passes of 20+ yards, the eighth-highest mark in the league. That proclivity for allowing big plays carried over into their postseason as well.
Christian Kirk hauled in a 23-yard pass in the Wild Card round. Mike Evans had a 55-yard catch and Rob Gronkowski caught a 42 yarder in the divisional round. Both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk registered a 30+ yard catch in the NFC Championship. Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase both had long catches that surpassed 45 yards in the Super Bowl.
Jalen Ramsey is a stud for sure, but he's certainly been at fault for some of these big plays. The beauty here is that Ramsey is sure to shadow Stefon Diggs for much of this contest.
That will give Davis the easier matchup to exploit ,which is why I like him in Week 1 and all season long.
The Bills and Rams last met in September 2020. Ramsey was on the Rams, Diggs and Davis were on the Bills. Diggs was relatively quiet, though he did catch a 23 yard pass and score a touchdown.
Davis had himself a great performance in what was one of his first career games. His long catch that day? 39 yards. He also had a 21-yarder to his name.
The bet
If you skipped right to here, I would urge you to go back and read through this piece; my goal first and foremost has been to shine a light on my approach. I hope you agree with it.
As of this writing, the best line I see for Davis' long reception is on FanDuel, set at 22.5. Davis went over that number in five of his final 10 games.
DraftKings and Caesars have Davis set at 23.5, and I'll note there is no difference in his hit-rate when you move it up to that number, but of course we're going to take the lower total.
Gabriel Davis over 22.5 longest reception (-114 FD)
It's great to have football back! Here's to our first prop pick being a winner.
Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders. Griffin can be found on Twitter, @griffybets.
Looking for the best sportsbook offers? Check out our FREE bets page
More must-reads: