Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1). Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 1: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots betting picks, preview

The Philadelphia Eagles had a great season last year. With QB Jalen Hurts leading the way they almost won the Super Bowl. This year is going to be a different challenge with new coordinators and more. They start at New England and facing the "Genius" might be the worst thing for a team looking to avoid a Super Bowl hangover. 

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots Betting Trends and Odds 

Sunday, September 10, 2023 - 4:25 p.m. ET

Odds: Philadelphia -4, Over/under 45, Philadelphia -190 | New England +160

We do not see a lot of home underdogs of more than three points this week and that is a situation that always gets the market's attention. This one has already come down from a higher number as those who bet the numbers more than teams are jumping in. There is no doubt that Philly is the more talented and better rated team but they are also in some transition too. There is more to unpack than just the power ratings here. 

Picks for Philadelphia vs New England

Over 45, D'Andre Swift 50+ Rushing Yards (+250)

Philly is going to learn that not having its offensive coordinator from last year's Super Bowl season is going to matter. I believe in Hurts though, and he has his top receivers to work with, plus a new weapon in Swift. Even more important to this total is that the New England offense should be improved. The Patriots have a legit offensive coordinator now and they have given the accurate Mac Jones more to work with. Look for these changes and a change in leadership of the Philly defense to help get New England into the 20s in the opener. Philly will definitely be there too.

The Eagles love ex "Dawgs" and they also love running the ball. Swift had trouble with health in Detroit and is going to be in a different offense with the Eagles. Philly might want to run Hurts less, but that threat helps open things up for the running backs and Swift should have lots of opportunities. This alternative line doesn't need an out-of-this-world performance to cash. Last year the opener was his best game of the season too (when he was healthiest — shocker).

The spread might fluctuate, but I expect the total to hold steady.

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