NFL Week 2 best bets: Two TD props for 'MNF' doubleheader
What a day for touchdowns here yesterday! We swept the board with all three of our targets and are now 4-1 on our last five plays. Let's aim to end this week right with a pair of touchdown bets, one from each game.
These are both half-unit wagers, as the touchdown market can be a fickle beast.
Jamaal Williams (+125 FanDuel)
This is a chalky one from the early game, but it's the only thing I'm seeing, and it's popped up a few times this week.
Carolina got on my radar because of what Atlanta did to this run defense in Week 1. They allowed 5.0 yards/carry, 131 yards to the running backs, and three RB touchdowns. Now, the Falcons might just do that to everyone this year, they had a solid day on the ground in Week 2, but it's still noteworthy.
Williams had an inefficient Week 1 but what I like to see is he's so clearly the top running back in this offense. Williams took 18 carries, three of which came in the red zone, and he saw two targets on 49 snaps.
Rather than bet on his yards, I prefer the touchdown. Williams scored 17 last season, and should New Orleans find success moving the football, I expect him to tote the rock up close.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (+375 BetMGM)
With Amari Cooper expected to miss this game, I'm starting to fall in love with Donovan Peoples-Jones this morning. Now, let me say: Elijah Moore looks solid too;, he was tied for the team lead in Week 1 with seven targets, and he saw two in the red zone.
However, I think DPJ is the archetype receiver to pop against this Pittsburgh defense. First of all, since this is a touchdown article, let's begin there. Last year, the Steelers allowed the sixth-most touchdowns to WRs, and they followed that up with two in Week 1.
Not only do they struggle allowing receivers to score, they've also really had issues limiting the explosive passing plays, which I broke down in my Substack last week. In 2022, I have Pittsburgh down as the second-best target for big passing plays, and their Week 1 performance hasn't swayed me off them as a target.
This is where DPJ can make his money. Peoples-Jones was one of the most explosive pass-catchers last season, and with Cooper gone, he's the clear deep-threat on this offense.
Brandon Aiyuk was the man who popped to start the year against the Steelers, hauling in all eight targets for 129 yards and two touchdowns. Aiyuk did most of his damage split out wide, and he led the team with a 14.6 average depth of target (aDOT). That's the exact type of role DPJ fills on this offense, and it's why I prefer him to Moore.
I might add DPJ's yards, or ladder him for a big day. For now, I'm betting his touchdown straight. In 2022, DPJ was second among Browns WRs with 13 red zone targets, and first was Cooper, who again is not set to play tonight.
Year-to-date: 4-6 (+1.55u)
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