NFL Week 3 betting trends: Time for 0-2 teams to get right, or else
If Week 2 is overreaction week in the NFL, Week 3 should be known as get-right week. It's virtually the last chance for 0-2 teams to save their season, as an 0-3 start makes it nearly impossible for teams to rebound and make a playoff run.
Week 3 is also a get-right week for teams that started the season 0-2 against the spread. These teams get downgraded in the market after Week 2 and consistently show value in Week 3. Don't believe me? Let's check the trends.
According to John Ewing of BetMGM, teams that start 0-2 ATS are 83-66-1 (56 percent) against the spread dating back to 2005. Here are the teams that fit the mold this week:
New York Giants +10 at San Francisco 49ers
New Orleans Saints +2 at Green Bay Packers
Los Angeles Chargers +1 at Minnesota Vikings
Houston Texans +8.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Denver Broncos +6.5 at Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots -2.5 at New York Jets
Carolina Panthers +6.5 at Seattle Seahawks
Chicago Bears +12.5 at Kansas City Chiefs
Cincinnati Bengals -3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
What about teams that have exceeded expectations through two weeks? Well, there's a similar trend with that group, too. According to Ewing, teams that start the season 2-0 ATS are 38-49-3 (44 percent) against the spread in Week 3. Those teams are as follows:
Green Bay Packers -2 vs. New Orleans Saints
Miami Dolphins -6.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Baltimore Ravens -7.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Cowboys -12.5 at Arizona Cardinals
If you noticed, there are two games that qualify for both profitable trends. The Saints (0-2 ATS) are two-point underdogs against the Packers (2-0 ATS), and the Broncos (0-2 ATS) are +6.5 against the Dolphins (2-0 ATS). If you blindly trust the trends, the Saints and Broncos are two underdogs you should be targeting in Week 3.
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