NFL Week 3 player props: Zay Flowers is about to have a day
Thus far, we've declared two receivers as set to have themselves a day, Chris Olave in Week 1 and Keenan Allen in Week 2. Both indeed had a day, surpassing 100+ receiving yards. The commonality there was that they were both facing the Titans, and — gasp! — we're not going to circle Tennessee here this week.
Instead, we turn to target another AFC South secondary in Indianapolis, and an exciting young pass-catcher who gets the pleasure of seeing them this Sunday.
1u: Zay Flowers over 48.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings)
As I'm doing for each week of this season, I've taken stock of the week's best looking targets over on my Substack.
One name and positional group kept popping up: Zay Flowers and these Ravens pass-catchers against Indianapolis. The first spot was just as a secondary to target. Indy has allowed 10 passes of 20+ yards already this year, and their 7.3 yards/pass attempt is the fifth-highest mark in the league.
I also had already circled Indianapolis as a secondary to bet against due to 2022 numbers and 2023 expectations. Last week as a target, I watched as CJ Stroud threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns, with multiple WRs having big games.
I sat that one out, but not in Week 3.
Not only did the Colts stand out as a good yardage play, they particularly look good for any wide receiver that can capitalize on explosive plays.
In comes Flowers. Through two weeks, Flowers leads Baltimore WRs in targets with 15, catching 13 of them and averaging 10.8 yards/catch. His average depth of target might be low at 5.9, but he's been targeted three times 20+ yards down the field (two more than the next closest player), and he's already piled up three 20+ yard catches.
That aDOT might actually be a net-positive here, given there's some expected rain on Sunday in Baltimore. Flowers has been awesome with the ball in his hands, Lamar Jackson has shown a proclivity for targeting him, and the defense opposite him is just beautiful.
I haven't even mentioned this line or Flowers's production. The line is just 48.5 yards. So far this year, the rookie has finished with 78 and 62 yards.
Last week, all three of Nico Collins (146), Robert Woods (74) and Tank Dell (72) surpassed this total. In Week 1, Calvin Ridley finished with 101 and Zay Jones had 55.
I love Zay Flowers this weekend and I don't care who knows.
More must-reads: