Remember those halcyon days less than a month ago, back when the Steelers owned the easiest path to the NFL playoffs?
This is on paper, of course. Because these days, no game is a given, even when they scream so (on paper). The Steelers dropped consecutive games to two, two-win teams (Cardinals, Patriots). And now they find themselves battling for a wildcard spot with a host of AFC teams. They’ll play one this Saturday when the Colts host Pittsburgh at their place.
The leading contender for the first wildcard spot is the Browns with an 8-5 record. Then six teams, including the Steelers, are stuck at 7-6.
If Steelers lose Saturday, playoff probability plummets
Analysts with NFL.com proclaimed that the Steelers have the hardest task ahead as the NFL schedule finished with four more games. Pittsburgh plays at the Colts (7-6), at home against the Bengals (7-6), at the Seahawks (6-7), then finishes at the Ravens (10-3).
Here’s what NFL.com wrote:
Pittsburgh doesn’t own the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the league, but the circumstances surrounding the Steel City’s club make it the most difficult of this bunch.
The Steelers offense was already hosting tea parties in Strugglesville before Kenny Pickett went down with an ankle injury that required surgery. In retrospect, after watching Mitch Trubisky attempt to run the operation, Pickett looks like the Martha Stewart of pigskin matriculation.
Through Week 14, Pittsburgh is averaging 16.2 points per game, the third-fewest by a club with a winning record in the last 40 seasons, per NFL Research. Mike Tomlin’s team has relied on the defense to create game-altering plays, which, stunningly, it has done at a higher rate than should be expected. But the formula is breaking down as the defense deals with a multitude of injuries and fatigue from needing to be perfect to carry the offense.
The final four weeks sees the Steelers facing four clubs, each clawing for playoff position, including three road tilts and two rivalry games. After losing back-to-back home games to two-win teams, do the Steelers have it in them to right the ship? If they do, particularly with Trubisky under center for at least one more week, it might be Tomlin’s most masterful job to date.
Next Gen Stats calls Pittsburgh-Indy game ‘most consequential of weekend’
Maybe you want analytics to point the way. Let’s check with Next Gen Stats. If the Steelers beat the Colts, the analytics say Pittsburgh has a 54 percent chance at the post season. A loss drops the percentage to 14.
The Next Gen Stats team says “Saturday’s Steelers-Colts affair is arguably the most consequential game of the entire weekend when it to the AFC playoff picture. Because of the logjam of teams at 7-6 … both Pittsburgh and Indianapolis would see their respective playoff probabilities sink with a loss this weekend.”
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