The Indianapolis Colts took a massive risk on project quarterback Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick in 2023, and the results haven't panned out accordingly since then.
Richardson has struggled with injury, accuracy, and turnover issues through 15 starts at the professional level. Though the Colts are 8-7 in all of Richardson's starts, they've struggled to produce wins against playoff-level squads.
Thankfully, it's not all bad news with Richardson. He's had flashes of elite potential and has made throws that almost no other quarterback in the league can make. Unfortunately, he's also missed loads of throws that every quarterback in the league should make.
If you focus on the good, Richardson looks the part. According to Fantasy Points Data, Richardson threw a catchable pass on 76% of his throws 20+ yards downfield with a clean pocket in 2024, ranking him second among 33 eligible passers.
His top target on deep throws with a clean pocket was Alec Pierce, who caught four of his 11 targets. Next on the list is Michael Pittman Jr. with eight targets and Adonai Mitchell with six.
Only 16% of Richardson's 33 passes of 20+ yards with no pressure were deemed off target, also ranking second in the league.
When you see those numbers, it's easy to wonder what went wrong last season. Well, Richardson's pass-catchers dropped 18% of his 33 targets, the highest drop rate in the league. Only two other quarterbacks suffered from double-digit drop rates: Josh Allen and Bryce Young (11%).
If the Colts' receiving room can get things cleaned up for Richardson, it would seriously boost his confidence during a make-or-break season. With Richardson's rocket of an arm, there's no reason why deep balls can't be the bread and butter for the offense, along with an elite rushing game.
Following Pierce's breakout season, the Colts will hope for a similar jump from Mitchell in his second year. He disappointed in year one with only 23 receptions for 312 yards and zero touchdowns. If he can reach that 500 or 600 mark, the Colts might be in business with such a deep receiving corps.
The Colts will hope Richardson and the receivers can put together consistent performances, especially with their schedule being frontloaded with easier games.
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