The year was 2019. Four years after having a shockingly bad draft class in 2015, the Green Bay Packers didn't have many options. Their own free agents were mostly bad or regressing players, which forced them into an external spending spree. That's why they signed Za'Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Adrian Amos, and Billy Turner.
Now let's get back to the present (and maybe go slightly to the future too). Analyzing the current roster and how the 2020 draft class has panned out, next offseason may go in a similar direction.
From the 2020 class, quarterback Jordan Love is the only one who has already received a contract extension — it's a short-term deal, but enough to keep him out of the market in 2024. Other than that, the pieces who are still on the roster are slated to be free agents, joined by special teamers and low-cost flyers.
We will have a lot of time to discuss potential external reinforcements, but first let's analyze what the Packers can make with their own free agents.
Unrestricted free agents:
Offense
RB AJ Dillon
Dillon hasn't been what the Packers expected when they took him in the second round in 2020, but he's a useful change of pace back and a solid complement to Aaron Jones. The question, though, is if his production is enough for him to receive a veteran contract. The Packers will most likely analyze the entire scenario before making a decision: Jones' future, the running back market, and Dillon's asking price. For a team that has shown interest in acquiring Jonathan Taylor, they look to be more active on the RB market than we would think.
TE Josiah Deguara
Deguara is a role player, and his role as an h-back is becoming smaller and smaller. He hasn't been great as a special teamer either. As the Packers have three rookie tight ends on the roster, it's hard to find reasons to keep Deguara beyond 2023.
TE Tyler Davis
Davis injured his ACL during preseason. He's seen as a good special teamer, even though his offensive contributions are minimal. Maybe he comes back with a low salary.
T Yosh Nijman
Nijman is an interesting case because the Packers were willing to give him a second-round RFA tender to keep him for $4 million, but he lost the starting right tackle job to Zach Tom and the swing tackle job to Rasheed Walker. When David Bakhtiari got hurt again, Nijman went up on the depth chart. He's started one game this season, but other teams will probably be more willing to pay him in the open market.
G Jon Runyan
Runyan is an experienced player and, not considering Jordan Love a complete evaluation, the guard is certainly the best value pick of the 2020 class — which says a lot about the class itself. Runyan has been a starter since his second season. He's an above average pass protector and a bad run blocker. Maybe the Packers try to keep him as a depth option, but they will most likely look for an improvement on the starting lineup.
Defense
LB Eric Wilson
Wilson is a veteran presence and a top special teams player — I even chose him as my mid-season special teams MVP. He's also the fourth off-ball linebacker on the depth chart. If the Packers can bring him back with a similar vet-minimum deal, there's no reason not to do it.
LB Kristian Welch
Welch was added during the season as a special teamer, but his impact is limited. Maybe he's back on a cheap deal to compete for a roster spot.
CB Keisean Nixon
Nixon signed a one-year, $4 million contract to be back with the Packers after an All-Pro season as returner. He's been a starter at slot corner too. The smart play here for Green Bay is probably trying to find a longer deal, but with a lower average salary.
S Darnell Savage
The Packers made last year a highly questionable decision of picking up Savage's fifth-year option, so he played this year under a $7.9 million value. They restructured his contract to open up cap space adding void years, so he's slated to cost the Packers $5.456 million next year without being under contract. It would make sense for the Packers to give him a new one-year deal, costing something around $2 million to $3 million, to keep the void years prorated. So they would keep him and save cap space in 2024.
S Rudy Ford
Ford has been the best Packers safety by a significant margin. It makes sense to extend him, but he's already 29 and is just a role player. The price has to be right.
S Dallin Leavitt
Another special teamer that could be back to compete for a roster spot.
S Jonathan Owens
Owens was picked up as a veteran safety to compete for a starting job in an almost empty room. But he hasn't beaten Savage and Ford for the job. He's started while Savage is on IR, but his performance isn't good enough for the Packers to keep him for nothing more than the minimum.
CB Corey Ballentine
Ballentine was promoted to the active roster when Eric Stokes went to IR and he started the Pittsburgh Steelers game. He's a decent depth piece, and a new short-term, cheap deal is on the table for both parties.
The Packers also have four players slated to be exclusive-rights free agents: RB Emanuel Wilson, T Caleb Jones, CB Robert Rochell, and P Daniel Whelan. But with them, the Packers have the option to extend offer sheets and keep them for a low salary.
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